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Navigating the Media in an Election Year

Uncovering, shaping and setting the political agenda, journalists across the media spectrum are important cogs in the wheels of Party decision making – particularly in the lead up to a General Election.

Seeking to understand how media content changes, and adapts to, an increasingly polarised political landscape – and crucially how organisations can navigate this landscape and cut through the noise – WA Communications hosted Caroline Wheeler, Political Editor at The Sunday Times; Sam Rix, Senior News Editor at Good Morning Britain; and Steve Richards, WA Senior Adviser, broadcaster and journalist, for an in-depth panel session.

This session is the latest in a series of WA events looking towards the 2024 General Election with senior political and media figures.

Here are our main takeaways from the discussion, and our advice on how to navigate this shifting landscape:

Setting the Agenda

Although we live in an ever-evolving social sphere, the power of traditional media remains, driving public conversation and painting perceptions of those at the top of party politics.

Sunday newspapers are the key orchestrators of this. Filled with whisperings from the corridors of power, exclusive interviews with key stakeholders, anonymous leaks and briefings and in-depth insights from company-led polls, print news holds influence over politicians, businesses and wider society – setting the weekly agenda and influencing broadcast coverage.

In an election year, with people falling over themselves to have a say on the ongoing Labour-Conservative dividing lines, this influence is more heightened than ever.

To achieve cut through, it will be important to align with the political narrative of the week and draw on ‘big splash’ interviews and regional political activities, offering new perspectives that play into shifting topics of interest.

A Noisy Landscape

The panelists painted a picture of an increasingly crowded media landscape this election period, pointing to strong voices on platforms like X – formerly Twitter – and the growing expectation for ‘all singing, all dancing’ interactive content.

They noted how social media commentary from politicians, journalists and wider society changes media narratives and continually shifts agendas. Less ‘traditional’ channels like TikTok and podcasts are also increasingly shaping political rhetoric, driving news content, and maintaining – or often igniting – public engagement in certain stories.

As we get closer to the General Election, we can expect media outlets to publish more data, audio, visual and short-form video content across Tik Tok, X and LinkedIn, as they continue their effort to keep abreast of the latest political developments.

Surveilling and using these channels will be more important than ever in assessing how and where best to share your voice.

Communication with Today’s Politicians

It is no secret that media have long played into symbiotic relationships with politicians in Westminster, to obtain information and construct stories that shape narratives and connect with the public.

Despite this, the panel outlined the hesitancy and cautious approach they have experienced from today’s politicians, who seem scared by a perceived threat of public-facing exposure. Whilst Conservative leaning papers struggle to show support for Rishi Sunak, Labour leader Keir Starmer struggles to engage with the media at all – a possible stumbling block in his leadership campaign.

Overall, party communication with the media has been relatively weak, with the panel suggesting press offices are poorly briefed and spokespeople poorly guided. There are, however, some glimmers of hope for Labour in the likes of Wes Streeting and Lisa Nandy.

Whilst the parties struggle to embrace media opportunities in the run up to the General Election, constructive engagement from businesses will be welcomed to fill this gap.

Looking Ahead

As the political landscape evolves, the panel predicted several key themes that are likely to shape media discourse in the coming months.

This includes increased scrutiny over Government spending and party finances, particularly in areas related to green finance and cost-of-living. Artificial intelligence is also likely to have an increasing influence in the media, with deep fake clips resonating with social audiences. Beyond this, foreign affairs could play a more influential role in this year’s election, with a focus on the impact of the Donald Trump administration and the implications of the Israel-Gaza conflict.

In light of these changing focuses, keeping an eye on media priorities will be the most effective way to determine which narratives to play into, which journalists and outlets are covering topics of interest to your business, and to pinpoint where you can offer new and stimulating perspectives.

WA Communications works to help businesses navigate the shifting landscape, and land meaningful coverage across national, broadcast, trade and regional media.

For more information on how WA can help, please contact media@wacomms.co.uk or get in touch with LeeFindell@wacomms.co.uk or RachelFord@wacomms.co.uk.

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New faces in the Treasury: What Sunak’s shake up of the top team means for the City?

Monday’s whirlwind reshuffle, prompted by Braverman’s removal from Government, has seen both new and old faces enter the Ministerial team. Driven by a need to refresh Sunak’s credentials as a moderate Conservative, this latest round of appointments is marked by the promotion of younger, centrist political figures that have long been tipped for high office.

Sunak’s new Government is a clear signal of his desire to promote a more moderate, professional tone that reassures voters in the Lib Dem facing Blue Wall and appeals to the “anti-Corybn” vote GCHQ have been pursuing. It is also a clear charm offensive, with this new suite of fresh-faced Ministers likely to become active spokespeople for the Party in the run up to the General Election as the Conservatives look to broaden their appeal. An appeal he no doubt hopes to double by bringing former moderate Tory Prime Minister David Cameron back into the fold.

Beyond the broad political direction, this move indicates departments across Whitehall saw sweeping changes amongst their Ministerial teams. HM Treasury is no exemption. Whilst Chancellor Jeremy Hunt remains in post, a number of long-standing Treasury Ministers have been reshuffled out of the Treasury only to be replaced by “rising star” candidates close to Sunak. Whilst Gareth Davies MP remains in his post as Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, Victoria Atkins, Andrew Griffiths and John Glen are all moving on from No.11.

So what will these new Ministers bring to the table?

Deep industry expertise!

Notably for the City is the appointment of a familiar face – Bim Afolami MP – to his first Ministerial role as Economic Secretary to the Treasury. With real life experience in financial services before becoming an MP and as the long-serving Chair of the Financial Services and Markets APPG, Afolami is no stranger to the inner workings of the City. It was a clear choice for a Prime Minister trying to combat the charm offensive spearheaded by Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

As frontman of the 2018 Blue Book and champion of “common sense”, he has been vocal on the need for proportionate and sensibly paced regulation, and his open-door policy to City representatives means he’ll hit the ground running in government. With his appointment, we can expect to see a firmer stance on accountability for the regulators, a priority he’s championed from the back benches through the Regulatory Reform Group.

A trusted pair of hands

Laura Trott MP’s promotion from Pensions Minister to Chief Secretary to the Treasury also marks a shoring up of the Treasury ranks with a trusted pair of hands close to Hunt, and with strong ties to new Foreign Secretary David Cameron. Having also been an adviser to Lord Maude during his review into the inner workings of Government, she brings a deep understanding of the machinery of government at a critical time for the Conservative Party ahead of the general election.

Trott will now inherit one of the thorniest of briefs in HM Treasury. From large scale regulatory reform to sizeable infrastructure projects to the unenviable challenge of redirecting HS2 funds, she is set for a high-profile year. Her previous stint on pensions policy could smooth the path for Hunt’s Mansion House reforms, a hallmark policy he wants to see cross over the finish line before voters go to the polls.

A seasoned moderate Minister

Also joining the HM Treasury top team is seasoned Minister Nigel Huddleston MP, who has held four Ministerial briefs since joining the Government front bench in 2020. Having most recently held the International Trade brief and with a pre-election background in business, Huddleston will likely approach his new brief with business sense pragmatism and an eye for detail, as he has been known to do in his previous appointments.

Today’s inflation rate drop comes at a good time for the new Treasury team and will no doubt be welcomed as a positive start for the new cohort. But be in no doubt, the Government needs to demonstrate green shoots of activity in the economy in order to achieve electoral success.

The new faces of Jeremy Hunt’s Treasury team will need to deliver on a suite of regulatory and policy reforms already underway, as well as breathe new life into the economy, in order to deliver for Conservative voters ahead of polling day and sway those that are undecided.

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Sunak draws battle lines over environment

The Prime Minister has moved to put clear blue water between himself and his predecessors in Number 10 and has broken the political consensus on how to reach net zero.

By delaying deadlines for phasing out new petrol and diesel cars until 2035 as well as scaling back requirements on phasing out new gas boilers, Rishi Sunak is seeking to give voters a clear choice between Tory and Labour environmental policy.

His decision generated favourable headlines in right-of-centre media but has alienated powerful voices in the business lobby.

Marc Woolfson, WA’s head of Public Affairs, draws eight early conclusions from the announcement.

This is a highly political move to create clear dividing lines with the Labour Party on net zero policy – as well as who should pay and when. The government is betting that voters will welcome the removal of costly and inconvenient interventions on home heating and insulation.

The political strategy behind this was to force Labour to take contentious positions and make financial commitments that could damage its economic credibility. At a political level, Number 10 will feel happy that the PM’s statement has landed well with the audiences it was intended for. It has been lauded by right-leaning media. But there are questions over how effective it has been in damaging Labour.

At first blush, Labour appears to have managed to avoid the ‘bear traps’ that have been set for the party, taking a nuanced approach to the various measures announced in Sunak’s speech. It has vowed to reverse the PM’s decision to kick the ban on new petrol and diesel cars down the road. In contrast, it has committed to assessing measures designed to decarbonise heating more fully if it wins the election.

Many of the reasons Sunak gave for implementing the delay echo concerns that many in industry as well as would-be drivers of electric vehicles have already raised – notably on EV charging infrastructure, lack of access to grid connections and an underdeveloped UK battery industrial supply chain. Interesting, then, that powerful voices such as the Ford motor giant and the SMMT industry body have been among the loudest voices protesting against the announcement.

As ever, the devil will be in the detail. Across the economy – particularly in the power sector – reforming grid infrastructure has been the number one concern of businesses for some time. The rhetoric from the Prime Minister gives industry confidence, but there will be a need to see exactly what this means in practice and whether it can bring forward the time it takes to build new infrastructure.

Massive investment is needed to overcome these challenges, which requires confidence and a stable policy framework. Sunak’s announcements, whilst framed as pro-consumer and (at least partly) in line with the concerns of business, are likely to weaken the UK’s attractiveness as a destination for global investors. The potential future economic gains and jobs that have underpinned the political consensus up to now may also be under threat.

Beyond the specific measures, the general mood music will leave a lingering concern amongst businesses that as the election gets closer, Number 10 may feel that it is politically convenient to scale back other elements of net zero policy. Those parts of power or industrial decarbonisation that are seen as particularly costly or disruptive to the public, such as critical electricity pylons to connect new renewables projects, or essential low carbon technologies that come with significant price tags may be particularly vulnerable. Recent scrutiny of a consumer levy to fund new hydrogen projects may offer a glimpse of what is to come.

It’s a useful reminder to business of the importance of looking at new proposals through the lens of consumer affordability. In the run-up to the election, clear evidence of how specific projects and policy ideas deliver best value for money for taxpayers or billpayers will be crucial.

Significant details still need to be fleshed out, following the headline announcement. Labour also has to decide whether to hold onto positions which opponents in Parliament and in the media will portray as anti-consumer. The party must hope that its Industrial Strategy can convince a sceptical public that there are major gains to be made. Whether this will resonate on the doorstep in the heat of an election campaign remains to be seen.

Our analysis of the media coverage of Sunak’s announcement shows that he has won the staunch backing of the popular press and right-wing commentators. While he generated huge media interest (14,000 mentions across traditional media), coverage has been broadly neutral.

The same could not be said for social media, where the great majority of posts are critical.

Join our webinar on Wednesday 27th September, to explore what these recent Net Zero policy changes mean for transport and energy businesses — Chaired by WA Director Angus Hill, with insights from Nathalie Thomas, writer of the FT’s Lex investment column and the paper’s former energy correspondent, and Sam Hall, Director of the Conservative Environment Network.

Date: Wednesday 27th September
Time: 4.00pm – 5.00pm
Location: Zoom Webinar

Please RSVP to events.rsvp@wacomms.co.uk

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In Conversation with Steve Richards

WA Senior Adviser, broadcaster and journalist, Steve Richards and WA’s Head of Public Affairs, Marc Woolfson, provided their take on the latest developments in Westminster and Whitehall, and unpacked what this means for anyone seeking to engage with the Government and understand the potential priorities of a Labour administration.

This conversation is the latest in a series of discussions with senior political and media figures hosted by WA.

Yesterday morning, Steve shared his insights on the mood at No.10 before providing reflections on the Government-in-waiting and Starmer’s preparations to ‘take back control’ of the country.

We’ve outlined five key takeaways from the discussion below:

1. General Election still predicted for Autumn 2024

At the time of our conversation with Steve, the Privileges Committee had just released their report on how Boris Johnson misled the House. Following the resignation of Johnson and Nigel Adams over the weekend, Sunak now faces (at least) two challenging by-elections in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Selby and Ainsty. Amidst this upheaval, some in Labour are hoping for a snap election.

Steve, however, is still setting his sights on an election in Autumn next year. From his viewpoint, although there will be continuing challenges for Sunak arising from this event, Johnson’s exit from the Commons marks a significant diminishment of his political prowess and danger to Sunak.

Unless we see a significant closing in Labour’s lead, Sunak will likely delay the election in the hopes the tide will change by next year.

2. Zombie Parliament: Sunak’s five pledges

Beyond firefighting a constant stream of internal upheaval and scandal, Sunak remains focused – if not obsessed – on achieving the five pledges he set out in January (halve inflation; grow the economy; reduce national debt; shorten NHS wait lists; and stop the boats). Halving inflation by the end of this year is a must as Sunak cannot afford to approach an election with rising inflation rates.

As a result of this focus, there is talk of a ‘zombie parliament’ at Westminster. For the foreseeable future, activity in Parliament will mainly be used as a mechanism for building up to the election rather than to pass any weighty pieces of legislation. As an example, long-awaited proposed reforms to modernise the UK rail industry have fallen by the wayside.

Ultimately, there simply isn’t much legislative time available to the Government with preparation for the party conference in October, and long recesses pushing MPs back out to campaign in their constituencies.

Anyone seeking to engage with Government on legislation over the coming months may struggle unless it falls within the remit of Sunak’s five priorities.

3. Keir and Reeve’s cautious policy: Nothing without funding

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are taking a cautious approach; every piece of policy is submitted to Keir’s office for scrupulous checking for any claims that might imply an increase in spending.

The party’s proposal to scrap ‘Non-Dom’ tax status – which Labour says costs the Exchequer £3.2bn – is increasingly the answer to almost any question about the viability of its spending plans.

But with Jeremy Hunt rumoured to be looking at announcing exactly this move in the Autumn Statement, effectively removing this potential uplift from Labour’s plans, Kier is especially nervous about any discussion on spending.

Labour is also being very quiet on their policy plans and recently rowed back on commitments in their green recovery programme and on universal childcare.

In line with this preference for fiscal responsibility, as well as Blairite influences at the heart of Keir’s team, Labour is driving their focus towards policies that symbolise change without spending money, including technology, innovation, and AI.

4. Labour and business: Now until Autumn is the prime time to engage with Labour

Between now and Conference is an important time for industry to engage with Labour if they are looking to shape the direction of policy.

Starmer wants Labour to look like the party on the edge of forming a Government by the time Party Conference comes around in October. Speeches will need to be policy-rich, trailing their manifesto, which is already being drafted.

Labour is sincere in its claim that its door is open to business. Industry interest in the party serves as a reassuring recognition that they are viewed as the next likely candidate to form a Government. If Starmer wants to realise his mission to get the economy growing faster than any other country in the G7, Labour will need close relations with businesses to achieve this ambitious goal.

Jonathan Reynolds (Shadow Secretary of State for Business and Industrial Strategy) is expected to announce further details of Labour’s industrial strategy at Conference, formalising their goodwill towards industry.

However, if in power, relations may be more strained as Reeves seeks to fill her funding gap, with the potential for businesses to face new ‘stealth taxes’. Industry will benefit from putting in the groundwork now, during a period when Labour is reticent to reveal any tax rises that may make headlines during the pre-election test period.

5. Public sector and unions: The challenge ahead for a Labour Government

Winning the election will only be the first hurdle for Labour. Should they win, they are set to inherit a challenging landscape, especially in the public sector.

Unions present a considerable challenge. Labour hopes relations will improve through greater goodwill and by restructuring who is involved in negotiations. However, as New Labour did in 1997, Starmer plans to stick with Conservative spending plans for the first two to three years, so will not have the money to meet the pay demands of the unions.

On the NHS, Labour’s plans have been ambitious but vague. Although they highlight scrapping non-dom tax status as a means to pay for recruitment into the NHS, internally, Labour knows this will not be enough. Moreover, Wes Streeting has asserted his ambition to ‘reform’ the NHS but has not defined this ubiquitous term. Internally the party is divided on their position over the use of the private sector to meet capacity.

Starmer is also acutely aware that he has U-turned on many of his leadership pledges, including plans to abolish university tuition fees. At present, the current model for higher education would not see much change, however, if in power, university schemes and the graduate tax are areas Starmer may revisit.

The theme of the first term of a Labour Government will be dominated by one question: where’s the money coming from?

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A guide to the challenges of 2023: A tell-all year

As the second week of 2023 draws to a close, it’s clear the year ahead will be rife with economic and political challenges.

WA Partner Rhoda McDonald was joined by WA Senior Adviser, broadcaster and journalist Steve Richards to discuss the issues that will dominate 2023.

Here are our key takeaways from the event:

Labour finding it’s feet

The Labour party enters 2023 with renewed enthusiasm. Starmer is keen to whip the Party in to shape and prove they are a Government in waiting. As he prepares for an offensive, there will be high expectations for his cabinet to perform, and with reshuffle rumours circling, there will be no room for idlers.

His team has largely been moulded by a new New Labour era, with some Blair flair, and it is clear that top of his agenda is modernising central government, stimulating economic growth, and reforming the British energy sector.

One of the key policy differences between the Conservative Party and Labour is around industrial policy – Rishi Sunak shows no great interest in an overarching Industrial Strategy, whereas Labour’s looks potentially very substantial, extending to light manufacturing, transport, and even retail, to underpin their ambitions for higher productivity and growth.

A Tory Party divided

Meanwhile the Prime Minister is tending to a wounded Tory party and attempting to rebuild political and economic stability. With wavering Tory voters, and the threat of a new Reform Party poaching his MPs, Sunak needs to be constantly appealing to the public and his backbenchers if he is to retain control.

Although Sunak appears to be relishing the challenge and leaning in to his role as the peace maker of the party, it is unlikely to be smooth sailing as the year kicks off with headlines dominated by strikes and pay disputes.

It’s all about the economy

The country’s economy is top of the inbox for the current Government and the Opposition alike. As Sunak’s forte, he is busy emphasising his brand as the fiscally minded Prime Minister who can stabilise the markets and bring public spending under control.

For Sunak the pivotal moment will come in the March Budget. The Prime Minister had prepared a draft budget during the leadership campaign, which was very business focused – looking at tax rates, business needs, and how to get people back into the workforce. As Corporation Tax rises take effect this year, against a background of a dire economic environment, the message of ‘growth, growth, growth’, and delivering the incentives needed to shape company and labour market decisions, are likely to be at the forefront when the Chancellor stands up at the Dispatch Box on 15^th March.

On the other side, Labour are in the midst of deciding whether they follow a New Labour approach and stick to Tory spending plans, or to reinvent the fiscal wheel and risk further unease. Either way, the position they take will be determined by Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

Fixing the NHS

With the NHS hitting the headlines every week, healthcare reform will be a prominent issue throughout the year. The Government cannot shy away from the mounting pressure to act.

Having already passed the 2022 Health and Social Care Act, the Conservatives are unlikely to introduce new reforms this side of the election. However, talk of how to use the private sector and discussions of outsourcing are starting to snowball, with Labour saying they would consider this approach to relieve demand on the NHS.

Energy crisis

While the energy crisis continues and with geopolitical factors such as the war in Ukraine determining future supply issues, the Government is facing further spending pressures. The clock on household support is running down, and businesses are already feeling the pinch.

The risk for Sunak is inaction should the energy crisis become more acute. Although he has been avoiding Government intervention, he will be forced to change tact and avoid taking heavy fire from Labour as they seek to differentiate themselves.

The Deregulation agenda

With growth set to be the buzz word of the year, the regulatory landscape remains a battle ground yet to be won. As the realities of an EU regulatory bonfire threaten chaos, the Government is looking at lighter regulatory initiatives.

With businesses calling for clarity over the regulatory landscape, there are opportunities for both the Conservatives to make their mark and for Labour to carve out fresh ground for putting the UK on the front foot.

All eyes on GE2024

2023 is set to be the tell all year. Sunak and Starmer are facing the toughest set of challenges any leader, especially a newly incoming Prime Minister, have faced for decades. How they respond to and address the economic turbulence and address the nation’s discontent will ultimately determine their fate at the ballot box.

While Labour may be 20 points ahead in the polls, Sunak’s momentum over the summer appears to have closed a once-gaping gap. However, unless either party makes marked progress on the issues of the year, the prospect of a hung parliament with a minority government will become a looming possibility.

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A tale of two speeches

Just three working days into the new year we have been treated to set piece speeches from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Leader of the Opposition Keir Starmer on consecutive days. Both had similar objectives: seize control of the news agenda; establish their domestic policy priorities; and persuade the electorate they are the right choice to tackle the very significant challenges the UK now faces.

However, they were coming from two very different starting points. Sunak is rushing to catch up with events, having rapidly and unexpectedly secured the Premiership in the midst of a political and economic crisis which has quickly been succeeded by an NHS crisis. Starmer has been building towards this moment for the last three years and has a significant lead in the polls he is looking to protect.

So how did they do and what are the implications for businesses planning their political engagement in 2023?

Structure and delivery

Sunak

The unorthodox nature of Rishi Sunak’s rise to power left him with the tricky task of trying to set out the defining principles that will guide his premiership while simultaneously acknowledging the short term priorities required to address the crisis in the NHS. He also tacked on a series of specific promises that he is aiming to deliver around the economy, the NHS and the small boats issue. This resulted in a speech that jumped across a number of different topics but lacked a core theme and clear narrative. His delivery of the speech itself was a little wooden but he performed relatively well in the extensive Q&A that followed.

Starmer

Starmer’s core message was simple: Labour is a credible Government in waiting that will devolve power, working in partnership with local government and business to tackle the UK’s long term challenges. It was a relatively well crafted and delivered speech that served as an effective critique of ‘sticking plaster politics’ from the current government. Unlike Sunak, Starmer has had the benefit of three years to prepare for this moment and he was able to draw on a lot of principles and ideas that have already been previously set out.

Policy content

Sunak

The Prime Minister set out five ‘promises’ that will frame the Government’s immediate priorities in the coming months: halving inflation this year; grow the economy; falling national debt; falling NHS waiting lists; new laws to stop small boats carrying migrants across the channel. While some have noted that these are largely in line with what independent forecasters are already predicting, the promises on inflation and growth in particular risk being significant hostages to fortune given how little control Government has on external, often global, events that drive economic trends.

Beyond this, the headline pledge was for all students to study maths in some form until the age of 18, with the implementation details yet to follow. Other significant sections of the speech on innovation, law and order, education and the NHS all lacked any new policy announcements, though referenced measures detailed in last year’s Autumn Statement.

Starmer

Starmer’s speech had a major focus on how Labour would take a different approach to running the country based on devolution of power and partnership working with local government and business. However, there was only one significant new policy announcement: a ‘Take Back Control’ Bill that would form the centerpiece of his administration’s first King’s Speech. The Bill will devolve powers over employment support, transport, energy, climate change, housing, culture, childcare provision and council finances with a further ‘right to request’ power for local communities also built in.

In addition, he nodded towards a series of ‘national missions’ to be published in the coming weeks that will frame Labour’s policy platform in more detail. Also of note, there was a very clear message that Labour won’t fall back on a ‘big Government cheque book’ approach in an effort to assert fiscal credibility.

Impact and implications for engagement

Sunak

There was some criticism that Sunak did not focus more on the immediate challenges facing the NHS and the industrial relations issues that are crippling the UK’s rail system. However, the five promises he set out do provide a litmus test against which he can ask voters to judge him. If he can demonstrate progress in these areas in twelve months from now, then he can start to build narrative of delivery that serves as platform for an election campaign.

Ultimately, this speech underlined just how much the next election is starting to dictate the Government’s approach. Sunak set up a small number of simple, measurable goals and it is clear that anything that can’t be shown to contribute to meeting them between now and the election will be far less likely to receive time and attention from Government. There was also a reminder of his personal focus on innovation as a key to driving productivity and growth – companies that can demonstrate a positive story on innovation are more likely to have success attracting the attention of No 10.

Starmer

The short term headlines that Starmer’s team would have hoped for have largely been torpedoed by the leaks from Prince Harry’s book. However, expect the ‘Take Back Control’ slogan to feature heavily as a core theme in Labour’s narrative this year as they seek to demonstrate to the electorate that they have taken the lessons of Brexit on board. While this was a speech that demonstrates progress in his mission to become a credible Prime Minister in waiting, there is plenty of work still to do. Labour’s current comfortable poll lead comes on the back of a terrible few months for the Conservative Party and with the electorate facing extremely challenging economic circumstances. If the economy improves and Sunak is able to claim some credit, then Labour will need to show much more of a positive alternative agenda in order to maintain such a strong lead.

That places a lot of emphasis on the forthcoming ‘national missions’ to add further definition to Labour’s offer. Business should be prioritising its Opposition engagement on influencing how these missions are framed and the detailed policy ideas that will be needed to support them. Starmer boldly stated that he wanted to change the ‘old game of passionately identifying a problem’ without providing solutions. His biggest risk is falling into exactly this trap himself and his team will need the help and expertise from business to avoid it if he wants to build a truly robust alternative programme for Government.

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Autumn Statement 2022: A double-edged sword for a nation in recession

Today’s Autumn Statement paints a mixed picture for the UK, with growth, investment and long-term ambition perching on a knife-edge as Hunt announced a swathe of real terms cuts to public services and immediate tax changes for millions.

The core measures – NHS funding, short-term windfall taxes, and efficiency reviews – all point to the tough decisions a Government facing down a recession has had to take and will undoubtedly reassure the markets. However, it will almost certainly come at a further cost to the Conservative Party’s poll ratings amid fresh criticism of their understanding of the real-world impact of their policies and the OBR forecasting the largest fall in real household disposable income on record.

For Labour, today’s statement presents an immediate opportunity to go toe-to-toe with the Conservatives on the long-term vision for the country, with many of the measures announced today not due to kick in until after the next general election.

It’s all about tax

As ever, tax – freezing it, cutting it and introducing it – is the dividing line between the Conservative and Labour parties, with Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves MP immediately jumping on Hunt’s plan to freeze the basic rate tax threshold until 2027-28.

Coupled with the decision to reduce the threshold for higher rate taxpayers by £25,000 a year, today’s tax announcements will prove to be an unpopular move for a Conservative Party which was re-elected in 2019, committed to a low tax economy. The Government urgently needs to repair its reputation with voters ahead of the next general election, but it is unlikely these measures will do so, as it provides an immediate opportunity for Labour to cement its poll lead by going on the offensive over rising taxes and falling living standards.

Cuts, cuts, cuts

For departments now facing reduced real term budgets and efficiency pressures, the door will be open to businesses, industry voices and campaign groups offering solutions which improve the outlook for key industries and make sound economic sense.

Whilst protecting existing budgets until the end of the spending review period in 2025 is a sign of the Government’s commitment to minimising the immediate impact of the economic downturn on public services, ultimately double-digit inflation putting immediate pressure on pay deals coupled with a 2.7% reduction in funding increases going forward, points to a difficult period for a public sector that is already under considerable strain. There are also clear plans for widespread public service reform in the not-too-distant future.

However, with many of these real term cuts backloaded to after the next general election, public spending will now be a difficult territory for both parties – and particularly the Conservatives – as they tussle over long term spending commitments with voters.

Schools, the NHS and social care are cushioned

Additional funding and a public display of gratitude for schools has taken many by surprise, following speculation that the education budget would be amongst those facing a squeeze. The £4.6 billion additional funding announced today will go some way in plugging the funding gap the sector has long highlighted.

Pots of funding were also made available to the NHS and social care sector, totaling £8 billion next year. However, this was followed by an immediate double-edged sword of efficiency measures and improved productivity requirements, with a politically astute decision to announce a review by former Labour Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt to commence next year.

Having put the NHS and schools top of the priority list at the start of his speech, this double-edged sword of increased funding and pressure for future reform of the system is a microcosm for the Tory agenda.

The green agenda

Despite economic pressures, Hunt again reiterated the Government’s commitment to the 2026 COP agreement to reduce emissions, positioning the Sunak administration as more pro-environment than the Truss administration. But the energy and investment measures today suggest there is little meat on the bones for the green agenda.

A short-term windfall tax on energy companies and a new 45% levy on electricity generators might go some way in plugging the energy cost bill and reducing pressure on households, but coupled with a new tax for EV drivers, industry is likely to argue that this Conservative Government just made investment more difficult.

Difficult decisions ahead for everyone?

Taking today’s mixed bag of good news and downbeat outlooks as a litmus test for the debate ahead, there are difficult decisions ahead for senior members of both the Conservative and Labour parties as they consider their future economic policies in the run up to the general election.

The tax and spending picture outlined in this Statement will form the backdrop to an election campaign in which household budgets, long term growth and access to services are a central feature.

There are likely u-turns ahead from the Conservative Party and strongly worded criticism from the Labour Party, but ultimately with the economic realities difficult to ignore. Both parties will be in listening mode and looking for input on reform in regulated industries, the public sector and skills and innovation in order to build a blueprint for prosperity.

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Cabinet reshuffle: who’s who?

Rishi Sunak has reshuffled his Cabinet, looking to restructure government round his key priorities.

With little positive movement in the polls and his government hit by a series of distractions in recent weeks, one hundred days in, this is Rishi Sunak’s attempt to regain momentum and refocus government on his core aims.

The Prime Minister has remodelled government to reflect the areas he wants to make progress on in the next 18 months. Taking over as Prime Minister at a time of economic crisis, making radical machinery of government changes before steadying the ship would have been difficult. He has long articulated his belief that the UK is lagging behind on science, innovation and technology, reflected in what is in effect intended as a new ‘department for growth’. On energy – the policy area that dominated BEIS – it has been clear for some time that the government’s focus is on energy security and resilience.

These reforms – and the ministerial appointments that accompany them – might theoretically be the right thing to do but the big question for the Prime Minister is whether they improve his political standing heading into the crucial election period. Major departmental and personnel changes take time and focus to bed in. They’ll be judged on whether they help meet the ‘five priorities’ the Prime Minister has set out, including driving economic growth.

This reshuffle provides an opportunity for businesses: making their case against these core priorities and helping the government meet their urgent need to show positive news and progress on delivery in these areas. New departments – and the ministers and advisers in them – will look for high impact, well-packaged ideas that align with government (and voter) priorities and create early wins.

To download the new cabinet chart, click here.

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Who’s in charge of resetting Government policy?

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‘The Grown Ups are back in charge’: Analysis of Post-Truss, and Rishi Sunak’s new Government

Last week it looked like Liz Truss’ legacy might not just be the smouldering remnants of the oldest democratic party in the world, but its possible extinction altogether.

Now, it seems her parting act has been something rather extraordinary – and for once, in a good way; the Conservatives now look, and feel, like they are in a more sane and unified place than for quite some time. No one is pretending the polls predicting almost total wipeout aren’t problematic, but the acute desperation that had set in amongst many Tories during the Truss tenure has dissipated, almost overnight.

Having sailed so close to disaster last weekend and the mad flirtation of a Boris return, it was almost as if by Monday afternoon the Conservatives realized they needed to re-find their collective marbles, sharpish. Their roar of approval as Rishi Sunak got to his feet at PMQs yesterday was in stark contrast to the awful, deathly, sickly silence of Truss’ later appearances.

As a first run-out, PMQs was quite spicy, with Sir Keir Starmer going straight on the attack over non-doms and the reappointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary, despite her having resigned over a security issue days earlier (watchers of the Westminster runes are suggesting ‘she will blow herself up sooner rather than later’). An occasional slight twitch of the PM’s right leg might have denoted some nerves, however, there was nothing here to cause him undue bother and the performance had his trademark polish.

So, to yesterday afternoon, back to building his team. Probably the biggest surprise of the Cabinet appointments on Tuesday was Penny Mordaunt remaining in the junior post of Leader of the House; she will have expected more – unless this is just a ‘holding pattern’ in expectation of Ben Wallace’s resignation from the Ministry of Defence if he doesn’t get the Truss-promised three per cent of GDP defence spending (allowing him to resign ‘on principle’, releasing him to go after the head of NATO job, which is what he really wants).

Michael Gove regaining his previous empire puts ‘Levelling Up’ right back up the agenda. We can expect Grant Shapps to bring his usual enthusiasm to BEIS and the role gives him ample opportunity to continue his energetic broadcast appearances. Mark Harper’s return to Government in the DfT is good news; he’s universally known as a safe pair of hands and as being ‘all over the detail’. Steve Barclay’s reappearance at health means he knows what to expect, but that doesn’t make the scale of the challenge ahead any less daunting, compounded (as everywhere) by spiralling inflation.

Across the board, there is a real desire to get back to some kind of ‘business as usual’ after this summer and autumn of psychodrama, and real recognition of the need to deliver on a domestic agenda, if the Conservative Party is to claw itself back out of the electoral oubliette in which it’s managed to land itself.

Sunak’s backroom team is also extremely important – not least if they are to swerve the huge structural weakness in Truss’ team; that she didn’t have anyone who understood economic and fiscal policy. Sunak himself, and Liam Booth-Smith, his Chief of Staff, think in Excel – so that issue is at least overcome. As a clear sign of how differently this incarnation of Government is viewed by the markets, they remained overall stable when it was announced the new Autumn Statement would be delayed by three weeks, taking place in November. Imagine what would have tanked if Truss had tried to pull that one off?

Truss’ own Chief of Staff Mark Fulbrook (of Sunday Times ‘under investigation by the FBI’ headline fame) still seems intent on demonstrating real ill-judgement. His suggestion that Truss should reward her N10 team in a resignation honours list has not gone down well. That’s without going so far as to question whether those short-lived advisers would even really want it. Talking to them in the aftermath, ‘bruised’ is the word that comes up time and again. One noticeably leaner advisor darkly joked his smaller waistline was down to ‘the Liz Truss stress diet’.

There is a largely prevailing sense of being embarrassed by having been involved in any of it, and a desire to quickly leave the whole sorry period behind them.

The Government is crossing its fingers and toes, hoping they can do the same with the last three months in the public’s mind.

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Back from the brink? (And a brink it was.)

As Conference got going on Sunday, one MP reflected in expectation of the PM’s speech later in the week that “The best she can do is just drone on for an hour”.

Liz Truss did an awful lot better than that in her speech on Wednesday. After what had been a torrid few days up in Birmingham, it looks like she has possibly just about clawed things back from the brink – though exactly how much breathing space it has really brought her very much remains to be seen. It is unlikely it will have done enough to completely reset where the Conservative Party currently finds itself – which, for the avoidance of all doubt, is certainly not in a happy place – whilst the polls remain so completely dire.

However, the mood in the hall as she delivered her closing note yesterday to CPC22 was positive, buoyant even, and there was plenty of enthusiastic clapping during her speech. She had an incredibly tricky three-fold task to pull off: reuniting warring Tories who are at sixes and sevens over the 45p tax U-turn and benefits uprating; convincing the public the Government is on their side, and steadying the markets.

It’s the economy, stupid

To work backwards through the three – that last one she has seemingly pulled off. The overall economic backdrop remains pretty grim. ONS figures put growth at 0.2% (we are mercifully not in recession – yet), inflation is running at 9.9% and the Bank of England interest rate is 2.25%. But the pound is – at the time of writing – remaining somewhat steady at around $1.13. Those markets received this speech an awful lot better than they did the ‘mini-Budget’ a couple of weeks ago. The clearest possible message was sent to them as the PM unequivocally committed to the Bank of England’s independence in setting interest rates, and that she and the Chancellor would continue to work together ‘in lockstep’.

To some degree it is her own fault that there has been so much speculation over the last few days that Kwarsi Kwarteng would have to ‘fall on his sword’ – she after all had told broadcaster Laura Kuenssberg on Sunday that scrapping the 45p was a ‘decision the Chancellor made’. He is safe for now, but over the last few days has certainly shown little of the ebullience that is his leitmotif, and it will be indicative to see how quickly it returns.

His own keynote speech on Monday was extremely flat and without any announcements. He spoke again, as the PM did in her speech, of the commitment to fiscal responsibility and running a tight ship. But we don’t as yet have any more detail as to how and where more paring in public spending might land. The ‘lean state’ that Truss spoke of yesterday arguably already looks pretty skinny, and former Civil Service colleagues in various departments are extremely nervous about the ‘efficiency savings’ they are expecting to be asked to make.

In terms of total managed expenditure, the three big beasts are the Department for Work and Pensions, the Department for Health and Social Care and the Department for Education. Looked at in the round, the only real place to go for potential ‘savings’ is DWP (of which more later). Any savings from other departments – a few hundred million here, a few hundred million there – will not be sufficient to cover what the Government’s mini-Budget set out, but will still be painful.

‘We have got your back’

There were some very solidly traditional Conservative messages in the PM’s speech: the Party will always be one of low taxes; when the state plays too big a role, people feel smaller; backing business to the hilt; hard work must be rewarded and our children given a better future; our greatest days lie ahead. It just about avoided slipping into pure sloganism bingo. There was nothing here to scare the horses, and it will have been of reassurance to the Party faithful, and the Government will hope, to the wider public.

Because it’s otherwise been an oddly policy-lite Conference – with the announcements that have been made being of a slightly motley nature, and largely in any case overshadowed by negative headlines about internecine warfare.

There was some ‘red meat’ stuff about expanding tagging for offenders and maintaining protecting single sex spaces in prisons – and the proposed curbs on public sector strikes have gone down well with the faithful and right-of-centre/middle ground media. Expanding the small business threshold from 250 to 500 employees should help cut the costs of regulation for nearly 40,000 businesses – though it is slightly less clear what replacing the existing GDPR regime with a British data protection scheme might yet achieve.

Notable by absence was anything of great note in the energy/environment space. A commitment to delivering a ‘world-leading first fusion energy programme’ by building a prototype fusion power plant by 2040 felt quite small-fry, in the scheme of things. There was also an announcement about increasing the Environment Agency’s maximum fines for water companies that illegally release wastewater and sewage from £250,000 to £250 million – but very little mention of Net Zero.

It should be noted, also, that the Government’s three priorities have changed. They used to be growth, energy bills and the NHS. They are now ‘GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH’ – though the Health Secretary and Deputy PM Thérèse Coffey did come in for a good dollop of praise from the PM, and a reiteration of the commitment to two-week GP waiting times. There has also remained throughout Conference a (verbal at least) commitment to the Levelling-Up agenda.

Keeping the show on the road

Many MPs just didn’t bother to go to Conference, and some of those that did (and are certainly not usually of the rambunctious variety) were a mixture of bitterness, anger and something akin to resignation (“it’s fatal, the damage has been done”).

These are the same folk who will be returning to Parliament on Monday – and will be needed to support the PM’s agenda as it further takes shape. If planning reform – as the PM yesterday intimated – is to be one of the first big ticket items, the whips are going to have their work cut out. On that front, enforcing Party discipline seems rather much focused on the ‘stick’ side of things at present. If a few carrots don’t materialize, things are going to fall apart very quickly.

Even leaving aside the backbenchers (it was only ever a matter of time before big beasts Gove and Shapps went rogue) the fact Cabinet at this point seems to be only somewhat loosely keeping things together is extremely problematic.

Admittedly the PM was the one who drove a coach and horses through the notion of collective responsibility when she let drop that Cabinet hadn’t discussed the 45p rate. But even so, to have a serving Cabinet Minister in the form of Penny Mordaunt apparently pre-rebelling over the benefits reform (and whether uprating is pegged to wages or inflation – the former amounting to a cut in real terms) before any decision has been announced is quite something.

The latest YouGov polling puts Truss at minus 59 approval rating (Boris’ at the end was minus 53). So, the Conservatives have three options. One: leave her there and hope things get ‘better’. Two: somehow engineer a coronation replacement and cross fingers that the country wears its fifth PM in six years. Three: throw it all up in the air, call a General Election, force Labour to take control and deal with the world as it is, with the gamble of it ensuring they only serve one term.

Options two and three do as yet still feel drastic, but the Conservative Party does somewhat, at times, have the propensity to shoot itself in face rather than the foot.

Conference might be over, but the PM’s problems certainly have not gone away.

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‘Where’ve yer bin?’ – how Truss lost the battle for local media

When your first appearance on the media since a major economic intervention causes you to tank in the polls and face mutiny from your own MPs, then it is probably safe to assume it hasn’t gone well.

Despite many Truss detractors claiming that this was a move of arrogance – underestimating the journalistic prowess of local hacks – there was more strategic thinking at play by the Truss camp. The premise made sense when faced with a ‘Westminster Bubble’ rebellion and days before Tory conference – bypass the bubble and get straight to the people that matter – the voters.

However, if ever there was an example of a well thought through comms strategy with poor delivery, this was it. With a little more preparation, maybe some of the disasters could have been averted.

So what went wrong?

Local journalists are connected to the concerns of their local readers or listeners in a way that national journalists never can be. While the national news outlets are the scene setters of the national mood, the regional reporters are the ones with the ability to get under the skin of the real-life impact on voters. Truss simply wasn’t prepared for the local-level questions fired at her by, for example, BBC Radio Lancashire. A by-election due there soon will be dominated by fracking – banned at present but which Truss wants to allow, but only with ‘local consent.’ Presenter Graham Liver leapt on this, asking ‘what does local consent look like?’ before pointing out that the local MP, Mark Menzies was anti-fracking. Similarly, on BBC Leeds she was asked for her thoughts about the Leeds bus services. Being able to answer these kinds of a local-level questions is a must for anyone going up against regional press – Truss simply wasn’t over the detail.

With the Prime Minister only having a few seconds between each interview – and within such a short time-frame – she was on the back foot from the start. Had she appeared on one of the flagship BBC Programs, the scope for longer, more in-depth questioning would have been greater, but the fight would have been fairer. The presenter and their producers would have worked up questions in advance; Truss’ media SpAds would be working from the opposite side, anticipating the obvious questions and nailing down their defensive messages.

The reality of the situation was far from ideal for Truss – whilst she was bounced from one interview to another, the producers at each of the radio stations were able to revise questions in real time, pointing out flaws on answers given only minutes or even seconds before. With her final interview kicking off on BBC Radio Stoke at 8:52am, this gave the Stoke presenters nearly an hour of prep time where Truss wouldn’t have been able to consult her media advisors. Far from getting into any kind of ‘flow,’ the PM was left running around in circles and tying herself in knots.

The format of the regional programs didn’t just give journalists the upper hand on the questioning – it also created the perfect short sound-bites for digitally savvy national media, with the opening ‘where’ve yer bin’ question from BBC Leeds shared embedded into national articles far and wide. In what rapidly became a national media blood bath, even the pro-Truss Telegraph struggled to defend the performance, while the Independent led with a simple ‘Seven best local radio takedowns of Liz Truss as she fails to defend ‘disastrous’ mini-budget.’ In a world of clicks and shares, the articles practically wrote themselves.

While Truss isn’t renowned for having the media flair of Johnson or even Sunak’s smooth delivery, it was something she was widely reported to be working on, with her performance throughout the leadership contest getting markedly better. However, this interview round showed a Prime Minister still clearly uncomfortable in front of a microphone, and lacking Johnson’s flexibility and ability to pivot away from difficult questions.

The result was a stilted performance that, by the fourth round of questioning started to sound more like an actor rehearsing their lines than the bold, trailblazing leader of the Tory revolution that party members voted for.

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Descent into the fire

The next in our series of insight pieces from Amy Fisher looking behind the scenes of the Conservative leadership campaigns.

As predicted this time last week, things have gotten very personal, very quickly indeed. Only Tom Tug in the debate last night really made any attempt to try to point out the circular nature of the firing squad. This was of course in the context of his own pitch as being a ‘clean start’ – which, irrespective of what happens in the next vote amongst MPs later today, already has more than a whiff of the ill-fated Theresa May’s ‘strong and stable’ slogan.

A large part of what has tipped this over into toxic warfare have been the televised debates themselves. Why any of the candidates agreed to do them is a bit baffling.

Whilst the public at large might rail against this, it’s a simple truth that until it is whittled down to the final two candidates (this week) and then the final winner (by 5th September), it’s only the MPs and Party members that really matter- in the sense it’s only they that have an actual vote in who becomes the next PM.

TV hustings also take an inordinate amount of time in preparation (not that Truss’ performance yesterday in reading her closing statement necessarily bore this out). Why haven’t the candidates instead spent their time more aggressively wooing Parliamentary colleagues?

These debates are also extraordinarily high risk – something Sunak and Truss have, belatedly realised: the next one (scheduled for Tuesday) has now been canned once they said they would not take part. How on earth did none of the advisers spot that each candidate being able ask another a question, as per last night, was going to going to be anything other than mutually assured carnage? The truth is that a lot of them are inexperienced and untested in either/both policy formation and/or campaigning. It did make for great TV though.

On the advisory front, I’ve been a little surprised by Penny’s lack of real detail on the fiscal/economic front. I would have expected her to have shown a bit more concrete thinking on the growth agenda. She’s being advised by Gerard Lyons, who at one stage was seen as a credible contender for Governor of Bank of England after Mark Carney.

I don’t wish the above to look as though I am jumping on the ‘get Penny bandwagon’. It’s just that having risen so spectacularly at the end of last week, the wheels seem to equally quickly be coming off the bus. I have to admit that I’m sceptical of over-hyping the use of ‘dark arts’. The problem with the furore about her views on trans’ rights and today’s story that she met the Muslim Council for Britain is that (a) she does seem to have previously held a position on self-identification that the Party just won’t wear, and (b) she did by her own tweet confirm she, well, met them.

So, the two “favourites” remain Rishi and Liz. There is no doubt at all that each camp will have been doing ‘due diligence’ on the other; the only question being when the material is deployed for maximum effect (read: damage).

Of course, there are some ‘true believers’ in each of the camps. But the reality is most of the Party are trying to game the least-worst option. In any number of Tory WhatsApp groups and exchanges over the weekend, the phrase ‘end of days’ is one appearing time and again. An ex-minister I spoke to over the weekend told me “Now we’ve gotten rid of Boris, none of it’s good. But it was a Hobson’s choice that he had to go”.

It was always going to be a Herculean task for the Conservatives to win a fifth term in 2024. To channel Boris, it’s a very real possibility the Party will make it a Sisyphean one by spending the summer tearing itself apart.

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Sunak V Truss – A Defining Contest For The Modern Conservative Party

And then there were two. In the final round of the Conservative leadership contest, Boris Johnson’s longest serving Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, faces the current Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss.

During the early phase of the Conservative leadership contest, there was a lot of talk about the need for a clean break with the past. Indeed, for one day last week at Westminster there was almost an assumption that Penny Mourdant would be the next Prime Minister. That was before her indifferent performances in the TV debates and the onslaughts from other camps, including the stridently pro-Truss Daily Mail. In the end, the MPs chose the two most experienced and best known candidates.

There is though, a significant twist. In this topsy turvy contest, Truss is running as the ‘change’ candidate even though she is the longest-serving minister in the cabinet. During a remarkable interview on the Today programme this morning, she argued that there had been a misplaced economic consensus for twenty years, thereby distancing herself from the policies of the Conservative governments since 2010. Her big pitch is for tax cuts to be implemented from “day one”. Specifically, she would reverse the National Insurance rise and the planned increases in Corporation Tax. Her belief, not widely shared amongst economists, is that such a move would trigger economic growth and avoid a recession. She also claims that the tax cuts would reduce inflation, whereas Sunak has argued repeatedly that the opposite would happen. Inflation would rise.

In fairness to Truss, she is speaking truthfully when she insists that she argued against the NI rises in cabinet last summer. She said then in private what she now declares in public, that the additional spending on the NHS or social care could be paid for by borrowing. I am told that Boris Johnson had also hoped originally to pay for his still vaguely defined social care plan without increasing taxes. In frantic meetings a year ago, Sunak insisted that if Johnson wanted the additional cash it would have to be paid for through a tax rise. Johnson agreed reluctantly. In his final Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday, Johnson could not resist a dig at ‘the Treasury’ when he told MPs that his successor should sometimes challenge that mighty department’s tight spending orthodoxies.

Johnson and his allies are out to stop Sunak. Apparently, there was talk of little else at his farewell party at Chequers on Sunday.

Yet here is another twist. In some quarters Truss is presented as the ‘Thatcherite’ candidate while Sunak is portrayed as the ‘centrist’. But Thatcher never did what Truss is pledging to do. For Thatcher tax cuts had to be paid for. It was not until 1988 that her Chancellor, Nigel Lawson, cut the top rate of income tax. She had been Prime Minister for nearly nine years by then. Truss’s approach is much closer to President Reagan’s in the 1980s. Reagan funded tax cuts from increased borrowing. In a contest largely defined by the 1980s Truss is a ‘Reaganite’.

Sunak is the Thatcherite candidate, even though some of Thatcher’s most ardent admirers in the parliamentary party are backing Truss. Like Truss he wants to implement tax cuts, but only when he has addressed inflationary pressures. This produces another oddity about the contest. Although Sunak resigned from Johnson’s government and spent a lot of his time when he was Chancellor engaged in tense disputes with Number 10, he is the one seen more widely as the ‘continuity’ candidate. This is because inevitably he is not going to disown his economic policies.

Sunak’s pitch is very different to the one that Truss is making. Already he has made clear that only he can win the next election for the Conservatives. His supporters also argue that because Truss plans to make sweeping changes she will be obliged to call an early election to secure a new mandate. Party members dread an early election. In interviews later today and in the coming days Sunak plans to argue that the Conservatives’ reputation for economic competence is the key to their appeal. If they lose that with unfunded tax cuts, they are finished for the time being.

As a result of this fundamental divide on the right of the Conservative party over when to cut taxes, there will be big consequences arising from this contest. If Truss wins, Sunak and his close supporters will struggle to support her new government’s economic plans. How can they vote for policies in the Commons when they have argued they are ‘fairytale’ tax cuts that will fuel inflation? In the longer term, I suspect Sunak would leave British politics at the next election. He would not serve in a Truss cabinet. Conversely, although throughout her career Truss has been a much more flexible politician than Sunak, it will not be easy for her and her closest allies to back Sunak’s economic policies this autumn if he wins. The leadership contest is a symptom of a division over how to achieve economic growth and there will be no resolution when a new Prime Minister is crowned in September.

There is one final twist. Both candidates seek a smaller state in theory. Yet almost certainly whoever wins will begin by spending more. To take a precise example, the hugely influential financial guru, Martin Lewis, is already calling for an emergency package this autumn when the new energy price cap is announced. The night before Sunak unveiled his most recent programme of financial assistance, he phoned Lewis to check that he was doing enough. He wanted Lewis’ backing and feared further opposition. No new Prime Minister will want to have Lewis as an enemy. There will be further help with fuel bills.

More widely the next election will be moving into view. A new Prime Minister will be in no position to cut spending on the NHS in advance, nor resist demands for increases in defence spending. There is also the thorny issue of social care. The additional spending from the NI rise is being spent largely on the NHS. How is the new Prime Minister going to find additional funds for social care or will they dump this commitment? What about ‘levelling up’, a concept that neither Sunak nor Truss is as enthusiastic about as Johnson?

The Conservatives need to retain some of those red wall seats if they are to win next time. To do so the new government will have to spend more money rather than cut departmental budgets. But for now, there is a single target audience, the party membership. Every word uttered in the next few weeks will be aimed at pleasing the members alone. They will elect the next Prime Minister.

Polls suggest Truss is well ahead. Sunak knows he has little time to sway the membership. Most are likely to vote early in the contest. He and his team plan to work around the clock for new week or so as the ballot papers are sent out. Sunak will need to be at his most persuasive. Polls on the ConservativeHome website suggest early tax cuts are the members’ top priority. Truss is pledging to give them what they want as well as delivering better public services.

When Johnson used to pledge tax cuts and higher public spending, he acknowledged he was a ‘cakeist’. He would have his cake and eat it. Such an approach was the main source of tension between Johnson and Sunak. Now Sunak must go public and put his case for what he describes as fiscal conservatism. Polls suggest he is the more popular candidate with the wider electorate. That is rarely a decisive factor in Conservative leadership contests.

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Things hot up

Former Government Special Adviser and WA’s new Director Amy Fisher shares her inside track and perspective on the Conservative leadership contest so far, as well as its wider implications for the party going forwards.

Dubbed a ‘wacky races’ line-up of those who’ve put themselves forward for the Conservative leadership, we will at least by the end of the day (with nominations having been made) have an idea of who actually will be in the running – and so who will need to crank up the wooing of fellow MPs over the coming days. Rishi had a good turnout for his drinks last night; one assumes he’s plenty more rose on order. He’s increasingly looking like the Djokovic of this – there may be challengers to the crown, but the favourite no doubt to make it to the last two.

So now the real trouble starts.

Since the starting gun was fired last week with Boris Johnson’s ignominious departure, things have been … brutal. The amount of briefing about, against and amongst the various ‘runners and riders’ has been vicious – and we’ve got a long, hot summer of this to go. Questions have been asked over one (not known for playing ‘nicely’ shall we say) Dom Cummings’ involvements with Rishi’s campaign; it’s somewhat irrelevant as to whether there is any kind of ‘arrangement’. Dom will do what Dom does, which is to blow everything else up so long as he gets what he wants. And a Rishi premiership seems to be it.

I’m worried by what the Party looks like at the end of this, by the time the candidates have finished taking clumps out of each other. This is personal. The last two leaderships (2016 and 2019) weren’t necessarily pretty, as such. But they were about the single issue, really, of Brexit, and to coin a phrase, who was going to get it done. This just isn’t – and with all the smears and allegations of smears already flying around, it’s somewhat ironic that this whole contest was prompted by folk’s collapse of faith in the last chap’s integrity and transparency.

The Party has always had a veering towards being its own worst enemy. I hope this batch of candidates can at least bear in mind that at the end of it all, they will need to form a Cabinet and Government of some kind of unity (not easy if you’ve spent the last eight weeks taking pot shots at each other).

However, new partnerships as the field thins out will be formed. This is where things get interesting- not least in the context of the looming 2024 GE (which CCHQ is very much focused on, and therefore so very much welcomed this leadership contest being sooner, rather than in say 6 months, time). These partnerships are make-or-break, in terms of political success and longevity. Where would Blair have been, were it not for Brown? Same question of DC without George? How each of the candidates shores up their economic offering, possibly with a running mate, will be one to watch – all of these pledges and the ones to come are after all at some point going to need properly costing.

In the last twenty years of my experience, the pendulum has tended to swing from one side to the other in terms of what the Party seems to look for in its leader. Michael Howard, safe pair of hands, DC, ‘star power’, TM back again, then Boris.

Undoubtedly what the Party, and the whole country needs, is some steady-as-she-goes form of Government, which the next few weeks most certainly are not going to be – not least if Boris, as he pledged yesterday to do, really is going to try and deliver all his manifesto commitments before he goes.

Still, by 5pm tonight, we should have a candidates’ slate that’s less like an actual cartoon.

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Posts Tagged ‘conservative party’

Navigating the Media in an Election Year

New faces in the Treasury: What Sunak’s shake up of the top team means for the City?

Sunak draws battle lines over environment

In Conversation with Steve Richards

A guide to the challenges of 2023: A tell-all year

A tale of two speeches

Autumn Statement 2022: A double-edged sword for a nation in recession

Cabinet reshuffle: who’s who?

Who’s in charge of resetting Government policy?

‘The Grown Ups are back in charge’: Analysis of Post-Truss, and Rishi Sunak’s new Government

Back from the brink? (And a brink it was.)

‘Where’ve yer bin?’ – how Truss lost the battle for local media

Descent into the fire

The next in our series of insight pieces from Amy Fisher looking behind the scenes of the Conservative leadership campaigns.

Sunak V Truss – A Defining Contest For The Modern Conservative Party

Things hot up

Former Government Special Adviser and WA’s new Director Amy Fisher shares her inside track and perspective on the Conservative leadership contest so far, as well as its wider implications for the party going forwards.

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