Jennifer Gerber Archives - WA Communications

Fiscal frameworks and macro-politics – the insider view on delivering a budget

WA’s Senior Advisors draw on their experience at the heart of Whitehall — reflecting perspectives as a special adviser in the Treasury and Department of Health, and senior Treasury civil servant, and Permanent Secretary in the Department for Business, and Department for Transport.

Sir Philip Rutnam, Chair of WA’s Advisory Board and former Whitehall Permanent Secretary

Budgets always matter. The British state raises and spends £1.2 trillion a year – £7 million just in the time it takes you to read this blog – so the way it does that affects everyone. But the Budget on Wednesday matters even more: it’s a once in ten or twenty years event, the first Budget at the start of a new Government. Here are five things I’ll be looking for to make sense of what happens on Wednesday.

First, is the overall narrative linked to a convincing plan? Expect a narrative all about boosting growth – the only practical way for us to get out of the spiral of poor public services, low aspirations and high inequality. But will the narrative be matched by plans that have enough breadth and depth? And will those plans involve building the dull but necessary capability to deliver, not least local and regionally?

Second, can the Chancellor really manage the politics successfully? Budgets are fraught with political risk. And that’s not just true about the macro-politics of Manifesto promises. It’s also about little things and unintended consequences. Are her team sufficiently adept (and lucky) to spot accidents before they happen?

Third, what’s the message for public services? This Budget will only settle current spending for one year, though capital budgets may go out further. We know some budgets are going to be protected – expect health to be top of the list, followed by schools. But public services everywhere are under pressure and in some places that’s acute: local government, criminal justice, defence. Who’s going to be disappointed? Look out for Cabinet Ministers keeping a low profile.

Fourth, and linked to that, what’s the message on reform? Labour needs a serious plan for how it will get more out for whatever it puts in – a mix of technology, transformation, and leadership. Any sign of that?

And finally, what about the framework for all of this? The Chancellor has said that she’s changing the fiscal rules, conveniently making room for more borrowing and investment? But on average the fiscal rules change every 2½ years. Is there any reason to suppose these rules will last longer? And what is she doing to change the Treasury, to give it as much focus on growth as on finance?

Jennifer Gerber, Senior Political Advisor and former Labour Treasury Special Advisor

After 14 long years and three intense months of speculation, Labour’s first budget in government is just 2 days away. Yet to many it may feel like it’s been a neverending budget debate since July 4^th, when Labour won with a mandate for change.

Many ministers and advisers across government, with hindsight, now regret the decision to delay the budget for so long, nor introduce a emergency budget in the summer. What this meant was months of speculation about what the Chancellor would do, and the limited ability for Cabinet Ministers to say too much about some of their plans, without knowing what their financial settlement or the Government’s spending priorities will be.

Of course there were good reasons to hold off and take stock of public finances, not least because both the PM and Chancellor wanted to make clear where the blame lies when it came to the perilous state of the public purse. With public services on their knees, prisons full to bursting and local councils going bust, the new government needed time to explain to the public how challenging things will be. However, the political doom and gloom may have felt too much to those in the Labour party who wanted to also show that, as the song says, things can only get better.

How to communicate how bad things are without scaring people or scuppering growth has been a hard balancing act, and many around the Chancellor and PM will want the budget to clarify Labour’s vision for government and what it hopes to achieve. This is hard when the endless chat has been focused on which taxes will and won’t be fiddled with (CGT, IHT etc) and what is the exact definition of ‘working people’.

With all eyes on parliament this Wednesday, the PM and Chancellor hope that with financial clarity the government can move on from the budget speculation noise and show the public how things are really changing. Though if Health and Education will be the only vaguely happy departments, the noise really doesn’t go away, it just changes!

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A clear cultural shift: how Labour will govern differently

Attention is now focused on what a new Labour government – but beyond policy differences, how will the party govern differently?

Firstly, it is worth remembering that Labour have been out of power for 14 long years. This means that many of the MPs who will be stepping into departments as newly minted Ministers will have little to no ministerial experience. And this is the same for the army of SpAds who will be assuming their new roles.

In terms of understanding quite how different Labour will be, it helps to start by looking at the people – there is every likelihood that Labour will have a huge number of new MPs, some in seats that they very much didn’t expect to win. Labour PPCs are full of those with backgrounds in local government, trades unions and charities. Many are campaigners, some are public affairs professionals, and quite a few may well be elected with relatively shallow majorities in a number of diverse regions. This will leave Keir with a large and new PLP to manage, and though it is a nice problem to have, it can pose it’s own complications with a number of competing priorities and egos.

In terms of the practicalities of government, it is worth reflecting that Keir respects process and institutions, as does Sue Grey his Chief of Staff, (Sir Philip Rutnam, Chair of WA’s Advisory Board and former Permanent Secretary explores how this will shape the structure of Whitehall more broadly here), so unlike previous PMs there will not be the informal sofa government we have seen previously.

There will also be a clear cultural shift – Labour is more than a political party, it’s a movement. And it has an eco-system very different to the Tories with a far stronger and robust internal democracy which includes the trades unions, who are an integral part of the Labour movement.

The new Cabinet themselves will come from a far more diverse range of backgrounds than we have seen under the Tories. Some grew up in poverty and many have working-class backgrounds which they’ve spoken about, especially in framing their political outlook. The times when Eton dominated the Cabinet table will be long gone and the tone and language of the new government will reflect this.

Also important is an appreciation of how laser focused Labour will be on their key missions and policies. Keir has been keen to consistently stress that economic growth is their absolute priority, so companies and organisations will want to look at how they can be part of this narrative.

There will be very little bandwidth for anything other than their stated priorities as well as very limited fiscal headroom. For those looking to engage with Labour, the challenge will be to use smart and nuanced ways in, where policy aligns with priorities, and companies can demonstrate their role in both growing the economy and shaping the fairer society Labour want to see.

There will be opportunities for engagement, whether it is through the various new consultations that will be launched, working groups or roundtables, as well as keeping up to date with the left of centre think tanks who in the last Labour government provided a lot of policy kite flying.

Questions around the structures of government and how Keir will manage No 10, not least the challenge of getting departments working together on cross departmental policy priorities, are not clear yet. What is clear is that HMT will be central to all key decisions as they focus their attention on budget and spending review in addition to making their growth plans a reality.

And this is forgetting what happens to all the best laid plans of governments…events! Unforeseen issues and events impact greatly on a PMs time and energy – whether this is pressing foreign policy issues or domestic crisies that can come out of nowhere, the pace and relentlessness of government is a different level to opposition.

Labour will be hoping that a predicted Tory leadership race, with all the ‘fun’ that entails, will give them some time and space before the media inevitably want a new story and turn their focus onto Labour.

Still, even on its worst days, being in government is a million times better than being in opposition, and after 14 years out in the cold, Labour will not be complacent about finally having the ability to do, rather than just say.

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General Election Political Update – Labour’s Campaign

In my first week as Senior Political Advisor at WA Communications, I was delighted to be able to sit down with Lee Findell, Partner and Head of Corporate Comms at WA, to discuss how the general election campaign is going and share my experiences from working at the heart of numerous general election campaigns

The conversation is the latest in a series of events on the upcoming general election with senior political and media figures hosted by WA.

A change in fortunes for Labour…

With recent polling predicting a dramatic and potentially historic win for Labour, party strategists are allocating resources and targeting seats that would have been a distant dream only a few years ago. There’s no doubt Labour HQ has a long hit-list, looking to win a range of different seats across the full length and breadth of Britain.

From regular party supporters knocking on doors to shadow cabinet ministers looking to generate media buzz and voter engagement, allocating these resources is a key component of election strategy and a revealing factor for the ambitions of a political party embroiled mid-campaign. Labour is reaching further and further into traditional Conservative territory, moving resources away from seats that would have been key battlegrounds just 5 years ago, believing that Labour’s position is increasingly secure in those areas.

On the other hand, the Conservatives are on the defensive, and with Nigel Farage throwing his hat in the ring they risk having their constituency majorities squeezed from the right and the left. Conservative Cabinet Members are locked into defending their own seats, with scarce time or energy to venture further than their own doorstep. From Chanceller of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt to Cabinet stalwart Grant Shapps, some of the most senior Tories are locked in a battle for their job.

But no complacency from Labour…

Tuesday’s TV debate reminded the country, not to mention senior Labour figures, why the modern Conservative Party has earned the reputation as a general election winning machine. Sunak hounded Starmer with the line that households would pay an extra £2000 under a Labour government, which is a classic play of Conservative election campaigns. They are extremely effective at distilling a message down and relentlessly pushing it so that it cuts through and sticks with the public when they go to the ballot box. This instance has reminded Labour that they cannot take their lead for granted and are all too aware the Conservatives will pull out all the stops to claw back any kind of advantage.

Labour, consequently, is playing a careful game. They have been cautious to steer well clear of making unfunded spending commitments. Additionally, they recognise they are unlikely to have a lot of fiscal headroom in office and, therefore, are careful to avoid making policy promises they are unsure they will be able to keep once they open the books for the first time in office. Labour has been keen to mitigate and counter the relentless Tory election media strategy by avoiding making the mistakes of previous election campaigns.

Critically, the Labour Party and Shadow Cabinet of 2024 is an indicator of an extremely disciplined messaging machine. The uniformity of message and purpose from Labour when in front of a camera or near a microphone is a sign that they have learned from both their past mistakes, but also their past victories. Labour are equal parts trying to turn people on to voting for them as they are trying to stop people from turning off.

How a Labour government might behave…

The Labour Party under Keir Starmer is emblematic of a party that has undergone a drastic revolution from within. They have been transformed into a unified, disciplined electioneering organisation and this is a significant indicator as well of how Labour will behave in government. Starmer has prioritised, at times ruthlessly, installing allies in safe seats who might make promising ministers of the future, but critically will support his leadership. He is not just thinking about how he will win; he is planning how he will govern.

NEXT LEFT? THE SHAPE OF A LABOUR GOVERNMENT

This article is part of our Next Left series, which examines the people and policies that will shape the next government if Labour wins power – explore the guide in full here.

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Veteran Labour Party adviser Jennifer Gerber joins WA

We are delighted to welcome Jennifer Gerber as a Senior Political Adviser, bringing more than 20 years of experience at the heart of Labour governments, election campaigns, and policy development.

During the last Labour government, Jen was a special adviser across three high-profile cabinet portfolios, providing strategic advice to Ministers at HM Treasury, the Department of Health, and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport. Across all three departments, Gerber was the principal adviser to Andy Burnham (now the Mayor of Greater Manchester). 

In recent years she has provided strategic political, policy and media counsel, working on some of the highest profile issues in Britain – including advising top NHS Trusts during Covid 19 and leading the Refugee Council’s response to the government’s immigration bill and ‘Rwanda flights’ policy.

In addition, she headed the parliamentary campaign group Labour Friends of Israel for more than a decade, and also previously led the prominent centre-left think tank, Progress (now Progressive Britain).

Jen has worked at Labour HQ on a number of successful Labour general election campaigns, and in the party’s media and business relations teams.

At WA, Jen will advise clients on political and media engagement strategies, working across our financial and professional services, health, investor relations, energy, transport, and education teams.

Commenting on her appointment, Jennifer Gerber, Senior Political Adviser, WA, said:

“From helping public transport operators communicate the journey to net zero, driving access to innovative medicines, or campaigning to secure access to cash for communities across the UK, WA understand how joined-up political and media engagement can drive policy change on issues that are crucial for society and business.
“I’m delighted to be joining the team and look forward to bringing my political and campaigning experience to bear across WA.”

Dominic Church, Managing Director, WA, added:

“There are few people who match Jennifer’s understanding of the Labour party at every level – from the frontlines of an election campaign, and managing the relationship with the business community, to operating at the highest levels of government; and her network across the Party, from the Leader’s office and Metro Mayors, to new PPCs and the key policy thinkers that will shape the next Parliament.
“Her expertise will be invaluable as clients seek to understand how a Labour government would work in practice, and I’m delighted that she’s chosen to join WA.”

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Posts Tagged ‘Jennifer Gerber’

Fiscal frameworks and macro-politics – the insider view on delivering a budget

A clear cultural shift: how Labour will govern differently

General Election Political Update – Labour’s Campaign

Veteran Labour Party adviser Jennifer Gerber joins WA

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