The Paths to Power with YouGov's Patrick English

Patrick English, Director of Political Analytics at YouGov, joined WA to explore our exclusive polling and analysis of Labour’s potential paths to power and the electoral trends that will shape a Labour government – and to discuss the implications of their latest MRP poll, which predicts a landslide win for Keir Starmer next month.  

Our Paths to Power research is part of WA’s ‘Next Left’ Guide to the Shape of a New Government – which explores what a Labour Government would look like in detail, including analysis of leading PPCs, a look at the role Unions play under a Labour Government, the key moments in the first 100 days, and more. 

YouGov’s first projection of the election campaign showed Labour on track for a historic majority of 194. Victory on this scale would bring in well over 200 additional Labour MPs and new constituencies with a diverse spread of demographics. 

Patrick English, Director of Political Analytics at YouGov, sat down to explore four possible scenarios for Labour with Tom Frackowiak, Partner at WA Communications.  

An underwhelming swing 

YouGov’s polling has stayed resolute since the start of the election campaign and shows no sign of narrowing. At this stage, a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party would be seen as a disaster for Starmer. However, key Labour figures are not complacent and will be aware that this remains a possibility.  

In this eventuality, Labour would likely take solace in their retention of ‘Red Wall’ seats that lost faith in the party in 2019.  

However, without a majority, Starmer’s ability to pass legislation would be dependent on securing cross-party support and he may have to offer significant concessions on his legislative agenda.  

Skin of their teeth 

A small Labour majority would be seen as an underwhelming success for the party and would have implications for their plans in Government.  

Under this scenario, Labour would win back constituencies that haven’t voted red in over a generation, including key southern battlegrounds. Labour’s Parliamentary representation would broaden, moving away from the urban-heavy base we have seen over the last five years.  

This would undoubtedly give Starmer a smaller mandate than he’d hope for. He would need to deliver short-term reforms required to secure a second term and satisfy factions within his own party at the same time.  

Strong and stable  

A 10-point swing or more will see Starmer emulate Boris Johnson’s 2019 election victory. This would make considerable in-roads into Conservative, Lib Dem and SNP held seats, including crucial constituencies in the West Country that have been apathetic at best towards Labour since the Blair-era.  

This would bring a whole host of new interests into the Labour Party. Crucially, it would enable Labour to set a course for policy changes over two parliamentary terms, with Starmer safe in the knowledge that challenges to his leadership and authority would be neutered in the immediate term.   

Full-fat Labour majority 

A Labour landslide would leave Starmer in dreamland. A 15–20-point swing is a big ask, but not impossible and YouGov’s latest projection puts Labour within this bracket.  

In this event, Labour would secure seats in traditionally Conservative-voting areas and claw back almost all of their losses in Scotland, reducing the vote share and influence of the SNP in Westminster.  

Starmer would see this as a total success and iron-clad mandate to govern on his decade of renewal. 

All sunshine and roses?  

Patrick finished our discussion by setting out a medium-term challenge for Labour: the electorate’s motivation.  

Currently, voters are not rallying behind Labour out of enthusiasm, but out of discontent with the Conservatives.  

If Labour win the General Election, regardless of the margin, a priority will be inspiring genuine optimism among the electorate. Without convincing voters of their positive vision for the future, Labour risks seeing their lead in the polls become unstable.  

Starmer must ensure that Labour’s policies and ambitions resonate deeply with the public, fostering lasting support that goes beyond mere dissatisfaction with the alternative.