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Hitting the ground running: The first 100 days
Hitting the ground running: The first 100 days

Posts Tagged ‘investor services’

Critical investment for critical minerals

The proverb goes ‘when everyone is digging for gold, it’s good to be in the pick and shovel business.’ If the energy transition of the 21st Century bears any semblance to the 19th Century gold rush that spurred the Industrial Revolution, what then are today’s picks and shovels that investors can capitalise on? The answer… critical minerals, such as lithium used in batteries or graphite used in aerospace applications and nuclear power plants.

Why? Because reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement will require a fourfold increase of current minerals inputs for clean technologies by 2040 and hitting the global Net Zero target by 2050 will require a sixfold increase of mineral inputs by 2040. Or rather, an increase from 7 million tonnes to 27.3 million tonnes for the Paris Agreement and 42.9 million tonnes for Net Zero targets. Perhaps more alarmingly, stated policy measures drastically fall short of future demand and a lack of critical minerals risks the great energy transition that will define this century all together.

The current UK state of play is intensely risky due to global trade concentration and near exclusive reliance on imports. Of the 26 critical minerals measured against global supply risk and UK economic vulnerability, only titanium scores a ‘low criticality’, 6 score ‘elevated criticality’, and the remaining 19 critical minerals score ‘high criticality’. As key ingredients in a clean and green future, the UK is heavily exposed to a market where the top three producer countries (China, South Africa and Brazil) control between 73% and 98% of total global production of at least 18 of these critical minerals – perhaps more exposed compared to the supply chains disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Government thinking about critical minerals began in 2010 when a trade dispute between China and Japan led to raw earth mineral prices quadrupling. Although China was able to demonstrate its market dominance, it wasn’t until 2021 when UK policymakers turned their thinking into concrete policy ambitions; somewhat late to the game compared to the US which began providing direct investment in production facilities in 2018.

The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy (currently being revised after failing to anticipate Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) was published in 2021 and quickly followed by the Critical Minerals Strategy in 2022. A Critical Minerals Expert Committee and Intelligence Centre were created in 2022 for advisory and knowledge sharing purposes, as well as a set piece funding announcement for the world’s first refinery hub, a midstream process for refining raw earth materials, powered entirely by offshore wind.

This step change by government in setting out its high-level intentions and policy ambitions is welcomed by investors. One investor told WA that “the government strategy is required because all the capacity is currently in China who are well established… and for the UK and Europe to suddenly compete you have pile in a lot of investment.” Or in the words of another industry expert, the challenge now is “…figuring out if this signpost will actually lead to pots of gold.”

A repeated concern of the Critical Minerals Strategy is an absence of deliverables and detail. It only goes part way in providing the necessary ‘enabling environment’ to attract greater private sector investment. The government already offers a range of funding pots from which the critical mineral sector can draw, such as the Automotive Transformation Fund (up to £850m) or the UK Infrastructure Bank (up to £22bn). However, if the government is truly serious about the UK’s vulnerability in the critical minerals game it will need to significantly step-up funding, its mechanism of distribution, and reform some of structural market barriers, such as the permitting and planning process for domestic extraction. Doing so will unlock private sector activity, capital and finance across the sector from exploration, extraction to refinery both at home and from abroad. It will also crucially, de-risk investment as government policy and funding aligns ever closer with new investment opportunities.

Resolving the critical minerals conundrum will require the same approach adopted for the British success story of ‘going for wind’ in the energy market. Government support since the early 2000s in cultivating, developing, and expanding wind turbines installed offshore has established the UK as the global leader in offshore energy. Central to the government’s approach was a clear partnership with private sector finance, working together in transforming a now maturing market where electricity generated from wind power increased by 715% from 2009 to 2020, generating almost £6bn in turnover in 2019. Government support matched its rhetoric, in turn boosting investor confidence and investment opportunities in offshore wind. As for critical minerals, the sector is, comparatively speaking, at the cultivation stage and whilst government rhetoric provides much needed clarity, funding will need to speak louder than words.

We can expect to hear more from both main parties ahead of the next general election. Investors should ready themselves for a government delivery plan in the coming months which will provide further detail and timeframes, as well as a national-scale assessment of critical minerals collating geoscientific data by March 2023 – crucial for spotting domestic investment opportunities. Beyond the next general election, critical minerals will be a priority for government whichever political party wins. Just as supply chain resilience is a particular concern for the current Conservative government, critical minerals will also be an indispensable ingredient of Labour’s flagship ‘Green New Deal’.

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The UK and India Trade Agreement: Bottom’s up!

Having conceded that a trade deal with the US is unlikely to materialise while Biden remains in the White House, the government has shifted its focus to striking deals with other big economies at speed before the next election. As Trade Minister in the Truss government, Kemi Badenoch, had reportedly been told that her priority was to secure a free trade agreement with India in time for Diwali (24 October), the deadline set by India’s Modi and Truss’ predecessor, Boris Johnson. The deadline has passed without any deal being finalised.

Investors are, however, particularly optimistic about what a trade deal with India could mean for the Scotch whisky industry, which has dominated the negotiations so far. No other nation drinks as much whisky as India but thanks to tariffs of 150% on imported liquor, Scotch whisky currently accounts for just 2% of the market. The impending deal ought to be music to the ears of Scotland’s world-famous industry and is looking especially rosy for beverage company Diageo plc, which owns over 200 drinks brands with sales in over 180 countries, including the world’s bestselling Scotch whisky brand Johnnie Walker. If the rumours are true that the UK is on the cusp of securing a cut to India’s steep tariff on imports, Citigroup has predicted that Scotch sales could rise by as much as US$ 2.9 billion.

But there’s a catch.

India may well be prepared to slash the federal whisky tariff, but Delhi’s negotiators are using it as leverage to get what they want out of the deal. In the latest plot twist, India threatened to apply $247 million of retaliatory tariffs on Scotch and other industries if Britain refuses to abandon controversial safeguards, it put in place to protect its domestic steel industry. This approach is not dissimilar to the one India took with the US – also over steel.

Publicly, the UK’s trade department says it will “only sign when we have a deal that meets the UK’s interests.” Though, privately, insiders are reportedly acknowledging India’s “dirty tactics” to push the UK into a deal that is expected to focus on eliminating goods tariffs.

Meanwhile, the UK’s services sector is having doubts that the trade deal will benefit British firms at all. In August, several business associations, including representatives from the financial services, pharmaceutical, tech and chemical industries, voiced their concerns about the speed of the talks and what could meaningfully be agreed in the time. Though we do make a lot of whisky, the UK remains overwhelmingly a service-based economy and securing strong protections for intellectual property rights and the free flow of data between the two counties were key objectives for the deal set out in the UK’s strategic approach for talks. Yet data looks to be a major roadblock to landing a deal that secures big wins for the UK’s services giants. David Henig, director of UK trade policy at the European Centre for International Political Economy, has concluded that the deal is set to be “predominantly a fairly narrow set of tariff reductions rather than anything significant that will change the cost of doing business in India for UK companies.”

The services sector has made a direct plea to the Indian government via the UK India Business Council to unravel the bureaucratic red tape that is regularly prohibitive for investors looking to set up or expand operations in India. The Council has urged India to take a broader view of priority sector lending norms for foreign banks operating in India and sought equitable tax treatment, while also flagging the increase in counterfeit product sales through e-commerce platforms as a deterrent for intellectual property owners. Even with tariff cuts on Scotch, the whisky industry has warned that a host of bureaucratic barriers will prevent the reduction from being worthwhile. Whether the Indian government takes heed, either as part of or alongside the trade agreement, is currently unclear.

The negotiations are also the source of some tension within the government. The Indian government is pushing for a significant liberalisation of visa routes for workers and students as part of the trade deal. Although some senior cabinet members may be supportive of relaxing immigration rules to help businesses fill vacancies, Badenoch (alongside Home Secretary Suella Braverman) are previously understood to have opposed proposals for a ‘freedom of movement’ agreement. How this plays out over the next few weeks is uncertain but the latest iteration of Conservative government is likely to be tentative about pushing through anything too unpopular with voters.

The Queen’s death has also added an unexpected dimension to the trade negotiations, with the debate about the Koh-i-noor diamond reignited. Shortly after her death was announced, ‘Kohinoor’ started trending on Twitter in India. The diamond, one of 2,800 stones set in the crown made for the Queen Mother which Camilla is set to wear at King Charles’ coronation, is the 105-carat oval-shaped brilliant proverbial jewel in the crown. Believed to be mined in modern-day Andhra Pradesh between the 12th and 14th centuries, the earliest record of its possession puts it in the hands of the Mughals in the 16th century. The East India Company acquired the stone in the late 1840s from 10-year-old Maharajah Dunjeep Singh. The company presented it to Queen Victoria and it was placed in the Queen Mother’s crown in 1937. The Koh-i-noor has been among the British crown jewels ever since, but governments in Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India have all laid claim to the diamond.

In 2016, the diamond was at the centre of a court battle after an NGO filed a petition asking the court to direct the Indian government to secure its return to India. At the time the solicitor-general, representing India’s government, said the diamond was a gift to the East India Company and it was “neither stolen nor forcibly taken.” However, the government later U-turned and said it would make all possible efforts to return the diamond to India amicably.

It is not publicly known if, or to what extent, the diamond has formed part of the trade negotiations. The strength of feeling among the people of India about the cultural significance of the diamond, combined with the UK’s weakening position in negotiations, have led many historians and political commentators to postulate that it might be India’s final trump card to play.

If you would like to discuss the India trade deal in more detail, please contact our policy specialist Thea Southwell Reeves on theasouthwellreeves@wacomms.co.uk.

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