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From the Queen’s Speech to the next election: what now for the government’s agenda?
From the Queen’s Speech to the next election: what now for the Government’s agenda?

Posts Tagged ‘Budget’

Rishi goes for broke: Budget balances post-Covid spending with a nod to fiscal conservatism

Rishi Sunak arguably had a difficult balance to strike with this week’s Budget: to position himself as a Chancellor not afraid to splash the cash to support individuals and businesses in a post-pandemic UK whilst also demonstrating his traditional, fiscally responsible credentials. If Rishi has his sights set on the top job in the future, the former was necessary to shore up support beyond Westminster, and the latter within his own party.

This was a very different Budget from this time last year. With the UK still in the depths of the Covid crisis, the Chancellor’s approach last November was inevitably short-termist – a patchwork of support drawn up and implemented on the hoof. This week’s Budget is more considered, with one eye firmly on the future.

The first multi-year Spending Review since 2015 would not, in the Chancellor’s words “draw a line under Covid”. Indeed, the spectre of the economic hardships faced by families and businesses loomed large over the Chancellor’s announcements. Nevertheless, this was the Chancellor’s first real opportunity to step out from beyond the pandemic’s fiscal and practical constraints. This Budget saw the first real movement towards a longer-term, more business-as-usual approach than has been previously possible. This sense of forward momentum the Chancellor’s speech was designed to create was clearly intentional. He will be hoping that this optimism will be welcomed by businesses and local authorities, and that the additional visibility over the financial and economic trajectory of the UK will allow for greater (and potentially more ambitious) planning over the medium term.

Keen to showcase the government’s flagship spending programmes, the Chancellor majored on the Levelling Up agenda. “Levelling Up” is mentioned in the Budget Red Book no fewer than 91 times – once more than the “economy”. Like chips on a pub menu, Rishi maintained the government’s commitment to Levelling Up With Everything. Improving roads and rail networks, expanding digital connectivity, new skills and employment schemes, housebuilding programmes and R&D strategies all fall under its lengthy banner. The Chancellor emphasised that spending would be directed to all parts of the UK, name checking a number of Tory MPs in Red Wall seats which the Conservatives are keen to hold on to at the next general election.

Seeking to appeal to those on lower incomes, Rishi closed his speech by announcing a cut in the Universal Credit Taper Rate from 63% to 55%. The new rate will mean that workers in receipt of UC will keep more of their benefits the more hours they work. Clearly wary of the potential impact of the rising costs of living and rising inflation on the government’s popularity, the Chancellor told MPs that he had written to the Governor of the Bank of England, reaffirming the Bank’s remit to ensure low and stable inflation. This nudge may influence the Bank’s thinking as it considers an interest rate rise for the new year.

Businesses also benefited from the Chancellor’s laundry list of announcements. The £1 million investment allowance will be extended to March 2023, and a 50% business rate discount for hospitality, retail, and leisure companies will be introduced from April, to aid the post-pandemic recovery of sectors which have been among the hardest hit. Investment relief for businesses looking to scale up or decarbonise was also a key feature, and a precursor to a swathe of further green pledges we can expect at COP26 in early November.

In perhaps the clearest appeal to the Conservative backbenches, Rishi vowed that his “goal” was to reduce taxes, saying “by the end of this Parliament, I want taxes to be going down not up.” For the time being, he has at least managed to avoid further tax rises; Corporation Tax and Capital Gains Tax will be unchanged for 2022, and no further increases in dividends tax rates or National Insurance contributions were announced beyond those already brought forward earlier this year.

But given the murmurings which have already started among Tory MPs that the tax burden is too high, freezes will not be enough for the Chancellor to play to the gallery longer term. His backbenchers will want to see meaningful tax cuts in the coming years but, with record spending commitments and precious little fiscal headroom, Rishi has a very difficult balancing act to pull off.

For the time being at least, “Brand Rishi” remains strong; the Chancellor still tops polls of the most popular Tory politician in the UK. But reconciling his fiscally conservative instincts for low taxes and budgetary restraint with the government’s post-Covid agenda to spend, spend, spend will be no easy task. Only four Chancellors since the Second World War have made it into No 10. Based on today’s Budget, with the Chancellor seemingly trying to offer something for everyone, it seems he is determined to become the fifth.

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The Winter Economy Plan explained

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has this afternoon delivered his Winter Economy Plan to the House of Commons.

In response to the recent rise in Covid-19 cases and the introduction of new restrictions expected to last for the next six months, the Chancellor cancelled the planned autumn Budget and instead made a short statement on the government’s immediate plans to support jobs and the wider economy over the winter. Before the statement was delivered in Parliament, Sunak was pictured outside No. 11 with the heads of the CBI and the TUC, signalling this was a set of measures that had the endorsement of both businesses and workers.

The decision to cancel the Budget, which would have included details of the government’s long-term fiscal recovery plan, was only made over the last few days. Today’s announcement reflects a recognition that the potential impact of a second wave of Covid-19 has made longer-term economic planning difficult and the government needs to take a flexible approach to the economic challenges ahead. The government has today taken the opportunity to act quickly to prevent a sudden increase in unemployment following the end of the furlough scheme in October and instead allow for a more manageable increase in unemployment.

Officially the government is still aiming to publish a multiyear spending review before the end of the year that would set out departmental budgets until 2024. However, a more likely scenario given the economic uncertainty is for the government to publish a one-year settlement to allow departments to plan for 2021/22. It is expected that the next full Budget will take place before the next fiscal year, likely in March 2021.

The main elements of the Chancellor’s Winter Economy Plan are:

The expected value of the package announced is around £5 billion, leaving the government with more firepower to support the economy should Covid-19 restrictions become more severe. Anneliese Dodds, the Shadow Chancellor, said it was “a relief” government had U-turned on the need for more support for workers but criticised the government for not acting soon enough. Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has also warned that the limits of the new Job Support Scheme mean that the UK will see a large rise in unemployment over the winter.

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Connect Four: Choices for fiscal stimulus and what it means for investors

For an unabridged version of this article please visit Real Deals.

With the economy facing its worst crisis in generations and unemployment figures increasing at an alarming rate, the government is preparing a number of measures to help the economy recover. The Chancellor Rishi Sunak will deliver a ‘fiscal event’ in July, which will set out the immediate steps the government is taking to boost the economy. It is expected that a full Budget will follow in the autumn once the government has a better idea of which parts of the economy are in need of further support.

With rumours the government is considering a temporary decrease in VAT, we take a look at four potential measures the government could implement to kick-start the economy and what they would mean for investors:

A temporary VAT cut

Top among the Treasury’s options is a temporary cut to the rate of VAT. The thinking behind this move is that it could encourage a nervous public to start spending in shops, restaurants and pubs. The move would be good for consumers and investors alike, encouraging spending and increasing the revenues of firms hit hardest by the crisis.

The problem with the plan is that it’s expensive and it might not work. If people aren’t spending because they are scared of contracting or spreading the virus, a small adjustment to VAT is unlikely to encourage them to start spending. Also, the Institute of Economic Affairs estimated the government loses £7 billion of revenue for every percentage point it reduces VAT. That is a lot of revenue for the government to give up on a plan that could failwhen concerns about debt and the deficit are mounting.

Bringing forward infrastructure spending

Spending on infrastructure is a good old fashioned way to get the economy moving. Officials in Downing Street are keen to use the delayed National Infrastructure Strategy, worth around £100 billion, as part of an economic stimulus with them hoping to get projects started as soon as possible. This is positive news for infrastructure supply chain investors, as well as for those with assets in the north of England and Midlands where much of the spending is expected to be targeted to shore up support in seats won by the Conservatives in December 2019.

While infrastructure spending can help the economy recover, to do so, it needs to happen soon. However, large projects that will do the most to stimulate the economy are the most difficult to start quickly, often taking years to get off the ground. The government is searching for projects that can be completed in 18 months, but even these smaller projects will struggle with the twin problems that there is a shortage of skills for many of the jobs the projects would create and that the government’s own planning rules are making it difficult to start projects quickly.

Cutting National Insurance Contributions (NICs)

To try to prevent an unemployment crisis, the government is considering a cut to employer’s NICs, or more radically implementing a temporary NIC holiday where employers don’t have to pay NICs on newly hired employees. After employees’ wages, employer’s NICs are the biggest cost to firms, reducing this cost would make it cheaper for firms to hire new employees and keep furloughed workers on the payroll.

A cut to employer’s NIC would be popular with employers and investors alike and has been endorsed by the former Chancellor Sajid Javid. However, if the combination of social distancing requirements and Covid-19 induced changes to consumer behaviour means that millions of jobs don’t exist anymore, a cut to employer’s NICs will do little to stem the tide of unemployment. The UK’s labour market is flexible enough to reallocate workers in these non-sustainable jobs to new roles, but this will not happen quickly. Also, while uncertainty over how long we have to live with the virus remains, businesses will not know which jobs will be viable over the long-term.

Cutting Stamp Duty

An often criticised tax, Stamp Duty has been claimed to create friction in the housing market, preventing growing families move home and stopping older people from downsizing. By cutting Stamp Duty, Rishi Sunak would be able to offer a significant boost to the home moving sector which would in turn increase spending in other areas, as well as create a more flexible labour market.

Think tanks such as the Centre for Policy Studies and Onward have recently called for reforms to Stamp Duty, with the latter suggesting Stamp Duty should be abolished for all homes worth less than £500,000. Choosing to limit the Stamp Duty cut to homes valued at less than £500,000 would make sure that the benefit of the cut is aimed away from the most well off individuals and would limit losses to the Treasury. Such a cut would benefit investors involved in the housing market, as well as those with assets in the home improvement and retail sectors, given that home moving is a stimulus to demand in these sectors.

There are no easy answers for the Chancellor, but there are certainly changes that could be made to help individual parts of the economy. While some of the options available will be costly, the government is likely to take the risk given the current exceptional circumstances. The unfortunate reality for the government is that the one thing that would allow the economy to grow unhindered is for the virus to be completely contained, but there is little sign of that occurring any time soon.

 

 

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Budget 2020 Analysis

This was a Budget of two halves.

The Chancellor started on a sombre note as he gave a detailed statement on the coronavirus and the Government’s response.

To manage temporary disruption to the economy, he pledged that the Government would:

Collectively, the fiscal stimulus package amounts to an eye-watering £32 billion.

MPs behind the dispatch box were visibly surprised by the scale of the intervention, but it did not stop there as the Chancellor moved from ‘providing security today’ to ‘planning for prosperity tomorrow’.

‘Planning for Prosperity’

Added up, the Chancellor’s forward-looking ‘prosperity’ pledges come to an additional £175 billion over five years with money allocated to transport, digital and energy infrastructure; public services; research and development and the wider enterprise environment.

Despite the sombre start, the self-assured delivery and bullish outlook in the face of an unprecedented global event looked like an early pitch for higher office.

The Chancellor said that while the commitments in Budget 2020 have remained within the limits of the existing fiscal rules, the framework would be reviewed – suggesting that a relaxation on borrowing could follow in the autumn in the face of low interest rates.

The Green Book, which sets the criteria by which infrastructure projects are judged, will also be reviewed – tying in with the Government’s commitment to shift investment out of the South East and towards the regions.

More Fiscal Events this Year

The Budget also launched a consultation on the Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR), which will close in July.

The exact timing of the CSR, which will set out detailed spending plans for public services and investment, will be confirmed by the Government once it has a clearer understanding of the coronavirus’ economic impact.

Collectively the Budget amounts to some very big spending commitments but with little detail on exactly when, where and how large chunks of the money will be spent.

What happens next

Four days of debate will now follow as MPs get to grips with the detail of Budget 2020, before the Finance Bill, which enacts the proposals for taxation, is tabled in Parliament.

The Budget will also be scrutinised by the Treasury Select Committee, with expert witnesses providing evidence to committee members.

With a majority of 80, we can expect the debates and Bill to pass without too much drama, but as the ‘omnishambles’ in 2012 showed a second round of scrutiny can throw-up unexpected surprises for the Government.

Looking further ahead, the Chancellor knows that his first Budget will be like no other and further tests sit on the horizon – the CSR later this year which will see an inevitable bun fight ensue as departments square up for longer-term funding allocations, and the Autumn Budget just a few weeks before we’re due to leave the EU for good.

 

 

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