All eyes on Reform in Runcorn and Helsby

There is nothing like a by-election to get political geeks excited. After being found guilty of assaulting a constituent – never a good look – Runcorn and Helsby MP Mike Amesbury is standing down and Keir Starmer will have his first electoral test since becoming PM in July.

At that election Runcorn returned Labour with just over 50% of the vote, with Reform second on under 20%. However, 8 months is a very long time in politics and latest odds have Reform as the favourites, with Labour contemplating defeat in this industrial town just outside Liverpool, somewhere that should be Labour to its core.

In many ways Runcorn represents the the stark political and economic reality Labour is grappling with – a resurgent populist right focused on immigration and culture war issues (sound familiar?) alongside a cost of living crisis that have left many communities in traditional industrial heartlands feeling left behind.

Within this complex landscape is a Labour party itself with differing views on how to challenge the Reform narrative. Some in the party, including those around Keir, support a strategy that would see the government talk tougher on immigration and more socially conservative issues as a way of reconnecting with those voters tempted by Farage. It’s clear that Labour is already leaning this way with a number of announcements on immigration, crime and welfare that many feel are aimed at Reform curious voters.

However, this is not a strategy universally admired in the party, with many on Labour’s progressive wing feeling uncomfortable with how far the PM has and will go in accommodating such voters and their views on ‘culture war’ issues which some find very troubling.

That is why many will be looking to Runcorn as a guide to which way Labour will pivot and ultimately how successful they can be in both winning back potential Reform voters at the same time as not straying too far into populist rhetoric that would repel others. It’s treading a very fine line and only time will tell if its achievable – but for now, all eyes will be on Runcorn.