Conservative Party Conference: Kemi is safe for now, but they can’t pretend Reform doesn’t exist

In the end, it was all a bit disarming. A Party once defined as the “natural party of government” now trying to work out who they are without power, or the distraction of a leadership race. This year’s Conservative Conference felt less like a political rally and more like group therapy, with MPs, activists and advisers all trying to make sense of opposition and convince themselves it’s not that bad. 

Expectations heading into Manchester were low. Polls showed confidence in Kemi Badenoch was collapsing as Reform’s support held firm, and talk was already turning to what happens next when MPs can, for the first time, move against her in November. 

Officially, Conference was all about making the case for a stronger economy and stronger borders. Unofficially, the real conversations were happening in The Midland Hotel and around the conference centre. From former aides and lobby journalists to MPs on the fringe circuit, everyone was testing the same theory: how long does Kemi have? 

There is now a fairly broad consensus, whispered but consistent, that she is safe for now but unlikely to make it past May if things do not change and the local and devolved election results are as bad as predicted. Most expect no letters of no confidence to go in before Christmas unless the speech had gone badly, which it didn’t. Even so, the question of what happens next came up often enough to remind you that the leadership question hasn’t gone away. 

Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly both drew big, eager crowds, while newcomer Katie Lam quietly became the week’s breakout name. She was articulate, confident and suddenly everywhere. Despite all of this, for now, Kemi is safe, more by default than devotion. 

Reform? Never heard of them 

If leadership was the unspoken subplot, denial was the main act. The Party spent much of the week trying to pretend Reform UK doesn’t exist, describing them as socialist, nationalist or simply unserious. The line was that Reform isn’t splitting the right, they’re betraying it. 

During her speech, Kemi notably turned her fire on Rachel Reeves rather than Nigel Farage, in what has been seen as an attempt to pull the focus back to Labour and position the Conservatives as the serious opposition while casting Reform as a noisy distraction. 

It was a calculated move and, to her credit, Kemi delivered when it counted. Her speech was confident, focused and at moments even bold. The promise to abolish stamp duty landed well, giving activists a clear policy hook and something to cheer about. Some drew comparisons with George Osborne’s 2007 inheritance tax pledge, which helped revive Conservative fortunes after a long spell in opposition. Whether this year’s announcements will have anything like the same effect remains to be seen. 

The beginnings of a plan 

For all the noise about leadership and Reform, this conference was ultimately about the Conservatives trying to show they have gone away, reflected and are starting to come forward with the beginnings of a plan. After months of drift, Kemi Badenoch and her team used Manchester to prove the Party can still talk policy. 

Delegates were relieved to finally hear some substance. Highlights included a new “golden economic rule”, requiring at least half of savings to go towards deficit reduction, with the rest used for tax cuts and investment. She promised a “Cheap Power Plan” to bring down bills by scrapping the carbon tax on electricity, removing levies on renewables, expanding nuclear and backing more domestic production. Funding from closing so-called “rip-off” university courses would be used to double the apprenticeship budget, while the Civil Service would be cut back to 2016 levels. The headline announcement that got people talking the most was the plan to abolish stamp duty entirely. 

The underlying message was one of restoration: fiscal discipline, affordable energy, investment in skills and a competitive economy. For business, it was intended as reassurance that the Conservatives remain committed to enterprise and growth and are a Party that should be taken seriously. 

What happens next? 

For some, Kemi’s speech and the policy announcements over the course of Conference were enough to lift their mood. “We’re actually talking about ideas again,” one delegate said, with cautious optimism. Others were less convinced, frustrated that these announcements had taken so long, especially on issues like leaving the ECHR or repealing the Climate Change Act. 

However, beneath that frustration lies a bigger problem: authenticity. The Party says it will act, but after fourteen years in government, few voters believe it will. Even among those who dislike Reform, there is a sense that Nigel Farage would at least do what he says he will. 

That same sense of limitation ran through much of the Shadow Cabinet’s private programme. Shadow Ministers used meetings and fringe events to underline how little resource they have compared to government, urging business and industry to send as much information and analysis as possible. They were clear that while formal meetings might be hard to come by, their teams would do their best to read, absorb and feed insights into policy thinking. It was a reminder that this is still an opposition in recovery mode, trying to rebuild relationships and capability at the same time. 

Still, there was more energy around the place than many expected. Fringes were mostly full (depending on which Shadow Secretary of State was speaking) and senior figures privately admitted it had gone better than feared. One former Minister summed it up neatly: “We expected a disaster. It was fine. Which is a win these days.” 

Beneath the chatter, there were a few reasons for cautious optimism. Polling suggests the Conservatives continue to perform relatively well on questions of economic credibility, still trusted by some voters on debt, investment and jobs. CCHQ is slowly rebuilding after last year’s cuts, with capacity in the press and comms team increasing again. Donors are sticking around, while Reform continue to struggle to attract serious funding. The machine is slowly starting to get back into gear. 

Politically, there are signs of recalibration too. Penny Mordaunt’s support for Badenoch’s ECHR position, a shift from her 2022 stance, was seen as an effort to steady the ship. Meanwhile, ‘YIMBY’ Conservatives are pushing James Cleverly to move faster on housing after Labour stole the initiative in Liverpool with their new towns announcement and renewed focus on building more homes. The space is there; the question is whether the Conservatives can take it. 

No one is pretending the hard part is over. The leadership chatter will continue, and the Party’s path back to relevance remains not only challenging but barely in existence. But for now, Kemi has done enough to buy herself time and to remind her Party that policy, not personality, is what connects them to voters. Conference didn’t change the political weather, but it stopped the rain – and for the Conservatives in 2025, that counts as progress.