And then there were two. After another week of self-inflicted trouble for the Starmer administration, No 10 will be intensely relaxed about the shortlist for the Deputy Leadership of the Labour Party.
If you’d have told Morgan McSweeney this time last week that Angela Rayner’s replacement would either be an extremely loyal Cabinet Minister from the right of the party, or another (then) Cabinet colleague from Labour’s squishy soft left, he would not have dared to believe his luck. The fear in No 10 was always a hard left candidate getting on the ballot and exposing, in the run up to conference and the budget, all of Labour’s factional fault lines. In a bad weak for the PM the fact this was avoided will have provided a moment of relief.
The absence of any hard-left figures from the final shortlist, though welcome, will lead in reality to quite a boring contest. The media (and elements of the party itself) will be looking for any angles that create embarrassment for the Leadership – that won’t come from Bridget, but Lucy might make life a little uncomfortable for the leadership on certain issues – outright disloyalty, though, is not in her DNA.
Lucy’s closeness to my old boss Andy Burnham is the lens through which any intervention will be seen, with some people desperate to position Andy as jockeying for position to replace Starmer (particularly with Angela Rayner temporarily out of the running). And her close relationship with Ed Miliband (she was previously his Chief of Staff) will reinforce his position and policy agenda if she is elected. But many expect the rhetoric of the contest, and (if she wins) Lucy as Deputy Leader to be fairly benign.
So who will win? Bridget remains very popular among the membership, the average Labour member is still very keen for the Government to succeed, and the Starmer slate has done well in recent internal elections.
But the Party membership still does have a soft spot for ideological purity, a penchant for crying betrayal and isn’t best pleased with Keir over issues such as welfare or Gaza. So Powell may benefit from being the candidate who is slightly more removed from the Starmer project. It’s likely to be close, but it’s unlikely to be box office.
“Unite the party, deliver for working people and take the fight to Reform.”
Education Secretary and a close ally of Starmer (although not the leadership’s first choice candidate, with Alison McGovern initially floated by loyalists), Phillipson has secured strong support – from colleagues across government, and poll position amongst party members – by emphasising her working class background and front-line experience fighting Reform UK in the Red Wall.
Securing the Deputy Leadership would mark a shift from months of negative briefings from within the Downing Street operation, strengthening her position and the DFE’s view within the cabinet.
Selected backers include:
“Champion our backbenchers, made sure their voices are heard, and unite our team.”
The recently ousted cabinet minister and well-known party organiser – who has close ties to potential future leadership contender Andy Burnham – will appeal to those disaffected with Starmer’s leadership.
Freed from the constraints of a wide-ranging government role and collective responsibility, Powell would be free to use the Deputy Leader platform to deliver a louder voice for backbench MPs and the wider party, as well as campaign on issues across Labour’s electoral coalition.
Selected backers include: