Starmer’s reshuffle: what’s next for Labour?

Though he wouldn’t have wanted it to happen in the circumstances that it did, Keir Starmer’s first Cabinet reshuffle was a clear indication that he knows that his Government will be judged above all on delivery. The key moves were all intended to get the best people in place to deliver on No 10’s political priorities, as seen through the lens of the wavering Labour/Reform voter – so Shabana Mahmood will have the best chance of shutting the asylum hotels; Pat McFadden will be best able to deliver welfare reform (supported by Jonny Reynolds as Chief Whip); and Steve Reed is seen as being best placed to drive housebuilding numbers.

Time will tell if these moves have the intended impact. What matters politically in the short term is the headache of the Deputy Leader election, which No 10 will be desperate to assert some control over, but which may become politically messy. The high bar to qualify (nominations from 80 MPs) will rule most contenders out, but a winner from the soft left anti-Starmer wing of the PLP (which is growing all the time) is certainly possible. There are many, many candidates considering a tilt at this race – we will know more about who has a chance later this week.

And what of Rayner herself? It’s possible that the PM gave her assurances that she would be back at the top table in a year or two, in which case she may keep her counsel and remain publicly loyal to the project. But if she perceives that there’s no way back for her under Starmer, sparks could fly in the coming months.

Electing Deputy Leader of the Labour Party

Right now, the focus of the party is on who will replace Angela Rayner. The NEC set the timetable today, with immediate calls of ‘fix’ from the left of the party. Candidates who want to throw their hats into the ring have until 5pm Thursday to garner the 80 MP nominations they need to go through to the next stage, where the hurdle they need to jump over is getting backing from either 5% of Labour Party constituencies or at least three affiliates, such as a trade union. Voting then starts on Wednesday October 8, and closes on October 23, before a result is announced on October 25. To complicate matters further, David Lammy will remain Deputy Prime Minister whoever wins the election as the roles of party deputy and deputy PM are completely separate (something the No 10 spokesperson is increasingly keen to remind people).

None of this is ideal for the PM, not least as it will reopen factional battles within the party for everyone to see. Issues such as welfare reform, Gaza and workers’ rights will all be seized on by the left and their candidates, which is not the reset No 10 wants.

Those around the PM and the Chancellor are clear that none of this will be allowed to take the focus of their renewed commitment to get on top of the chunky issues of cost of living, economic growth and asylum, and that the new Cabinet is united on this front.

However, many loyal MPs are privately despairing that the contest will show Labour at its worst and most factional – all of which can only help Reform. This is why so many of the PLP, many of whom were not of Rayner’s politics, were desperate for her to survive and carry on in her position. It will get messy, and it will shine a light on divisions in the party that have been there for decades and love nothing more than reappearing with new lead actors and new audiences.

Potential candidates

We don’t have long to wait to see who will be standing, but a number of names have been suggested to me – some wishful thinking and some kite flying – but it seems that the serious money is on Alison McGovern, Emily Thornberry, and Louise Haigh getting through the nomination stage. Both Louise and Emily will attack from the left, which will be extra pointed from Louise, considering she was sacked just last year by the PM. Alison is incredibly well-liked and respected across the PLP, is a political moderate, and was previously chair of Progress, where I worked with her and saw how smart she is.

As mood music to all of this, we have also seen the launch of a new Labour network called ‘Mainstream’, which some are viewing as a stalking horse for my old boss Andy Burnham. Andy is being urged to stand but is also very mindful of his responsibility to prevent a mayoral election which could hand Reform control of Greater Manchester. Andy is seen as the conscience of the Labour Party, especially in Angela’s absence, but his route from mayor to leader is far more complex and uncertain than some commentators are suggesting.

All of this highlights quite how fraught the next few months will be for Labour. Not least as Angela was key in smoothing over many of the differences between factions and groupings in the party. Keir was never of the party and relied on Angela’s experience, personality and charm to reach into the party in a way he never could. Her absence will be keenly felt precisely because she was viewed as someone who truly got Labour and its traditions and culture. This allowed her to reassure MPs on the left and keep them mostly in check – notably on the welfare reforms which she played a key role in.

Without her fulfilling this role, many party insiders fear that discipline will loosen and MPs will feel more emboldened to rebel on ‘conscience’ issues that will make the reforms that Starmer and Rachel Reeves want to push through even harder. It also ties Keir and Rachel even closer as the PM cannot lose another senior (female) ally.

Reshuffle

In better news for the PM, the reshuffle has been seen by many as a success. Allies of the PM (and Morgan McSweeny) have been put in key positions to deliver, whether that’s Shabana at the Home Office, focused on small boats, or Pat McFadden at DWP, having another anticipated go at reforming welfare. The moves across the Cabinet and the wider government show how focused on delivery the PM is – the view around him being that the only way they can guarantee beating Reform is by showing actual progress on the issues that matter to people.

Some in the party see the reshuffle as a resurgence of the blue Labour power base, though a more thoughtful reading is that it positions the key pragmatists of Labour, and is less about ideology and more about getting things done.

I have been taken by the number of my ex SpAd colleagues who are now in government. By my count, there are now 13 SpAds from 1997-2010 in government and 6 in Cabinet. These new Ministers understand how government works and how to run departments – they have experienced firsthand the grind of government and how to get the civil service moving.

Policy

Finally, it’s worth reflecting on what all of this actually means for government policy, especially regards the employment rights bill, very much seen as Angela’s baby. Though some have briefed that there will be some room for manoeuvre on elements of the legislation, others have made clear that the politics of looking like they are abandoning the core principles of the bill is far too dangerous for the PM at the moment.