Unpacking the 2025 Local Elections

While results are still coming in, the 2025 Local Elections appear to show a landmark shift in British Politics, with the UK moving ever further from a duopoly and closer to a five-party system. The two main parties face challenges on multiple fronts as they both attempt to limit vote-splitting to Reform and, to a lesser extent, to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

In the first test of public satisfaction for Sir Keir Starmer since Labour’s landslide General Election victory, Reform looks set to make substantial gains across England, and the party now threatens to assume the Conservatives’ position as the de facto opposition party.

Below is an analysis of the results so far and what they mean for the wider political landscape moving forward.

Reform UK

Reform UK appears to have met pundit expectations and secured significant wins, indicating that their high polling average is an accurate picture of public sentiment across the country. Critically, Reform’s early gains suggest that Nigel Farage’s populist movement has made inroads not just in Conservative strongholds, but in traditional Labour heartlands as well.

Alongside Reform’s win in the Lincolnshire mayoral contest – secured by former Tory minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns – they managed to clinch an extra MP in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Capitalising on the unpopularity of many of the Government’s recent decisions, they have demonstrated the power of their increasingly professional campaign machine by overturning a massive 35-point Labour majority, to win by just six votes – setting a new record for the smallest majority at a parliamentary by-election since the end of the second world war.

However, the question remains as to how the party will deal with increased scrutiny that will come at both a local and national level, and whether they have the temperament to make the jump from protest vote to potential party of power. Farage will remember how UKIP failed to capitalise on the momentum of successful local election results between 2010 and 2015, and be determined not to let this opportunity slip from his grasp.

Significantly for businesses – capturing that momentum means demonstrating that Reform can deliver in power, starting locally.

With the party winning control of its first three county councils, and the Lincolnshire Mayor holding powers over economic development, skills, transport, and planning, organisations with a local footprint in these areas will need to understand the party’s priorities and how they intend to deliver them. This includes the potential opportunities and risks from focusing on improving “pothole-ridden roads and unreliable buses” to delivering more “technical and trade training“.

Across the country, Reform has advocated for embedding UK versions of Elon Musk’s Department for Government Efficiency (DOGE) within local authorities. While this will be difficult for the party to deliver in practice, firms will have to consider the potential impact of slashing spending at a local level.

More broadly in Lincolnshire, where the incoming Mayor does not have the power to block specific developments, Dame Andrea Jenkyns’ success on a platform of “Ending Net Zero Madness” and a desire to ban new solar farms in the region, will provide a high-profile platform for opponents of a greater reliance on renewable energy.

Reform has taken a number of combative stances on policy issues from Net Zero to the NHS, and businesses will need to think about looking beyond this and look at the options for aligning their business offer with the party’s wider policy platform on delivering national renewal.

Whether firms operate in Reform-led authorities or not, the party’s electoral success will reverberate across politics and the media, shaping the operating environment for businesses nationally.

Labour

Just 10 months into their term, these results pose a significant challenge to the Labour Government. While his own takeaway is the need to deliver change more rapidly, Starmer will be braced for pressure from the swathes of MPs who won marginal seats back in July to move firm and fast on the policies which appeal to their voter base.

The Government anticipated a difficult set of results, and the line ahead of polling day reflected this, with ministers repeating the fact that most Governments have, in the past, faced difficult local results following a General Election victory. That said, it’s hard not to reflect on the fact that Labour is polling nine-points down on the 2021 local elections, which led to Starmer nearly quitting at the time.

Labour faces a key challenge in their efforts to reduce migration, and Runcorn and Helsby-candidate Karen Shore drew criticism for mirroring Reform’s rhetoric on this issue. Labour continues to combat Farage on migration, but they need to be wary of playing him at his own game. The Government risks alienating their base, worsened by unpopular decisions around winter fuel payments and welfare reforms, and some argue they would be wise to focus on their own issues to secure cut-through; namely, the NHS, climate change and geopolitical security.

Labour will, however, hold onto the results in mayoralties like the West of England. As a possible by-election looms in Jacob Rees-Mogg’s former stomping grounds – North East Somerset – new Mayor Helen Godwin’s victory offers a timely boost in confidence, seeing off Reform and pushing the Greens down to third place.

Conservatives

The incumbent in 954 of the 1,641 seats up for grabs, the Conservatives entered this set of elections defending the substantial ground won during former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s 2021 vaccine bounce. With public frustration still high and no clear direction, early results suggest the Tories are bound for a substantial crash from their previous high.

While Labour is experiencing increased pressure, the outlook for the Conservatives is much bleaker. These results are the latest in a series of blows for Kemi Badenoch, who has been criticised for her missed opportunities and aping of Reform over her six-month leadership. The party have also been addicted to leadership challenges for years, with no sign of settling down in opposition as Robert Jenrick waits in the wings to take over.

As they lose support – and crucially donors – to Reform, the UK’s right sees potentially catastrophic fragmentation come the next General Election. The Government aren’t the only ones who need to make difficult decisions: with an arguably centre-right Labour government and a populist right, the Tories must choose which way to lean, and they need to decide rapidly.

Looking ahead

Yesterday’s ballots and today’s results have implications for all the major parties. The Lib Dems and Greens – who typically do well in the locals – are also anticipated to hold onto the ground they won in 2021, in contrast to Labour and the Tories, though Ed Davey is likely to be hungry for more.

It’s important to bear in mind, however, that local elections are lower stakes. Turnout is generally modest, and voters are often inclined to choose a councillor who is (or at least portrays themself as) attuned to local issues – this doesn’t mean the result will apply nationally.

There is no doubt, however, that Nigel Farage will be raising a glass of something strong later this evening, while Starmer and Badenoch will have plenty to reflect on. With the Government’s Comprehensive Spending Review around the corner, Labour faces a critical juncture: whether to pander to the Reform-curious or satisfy their progressive wing.